USElection_TrumpVHillary



                                                                     Will the American People quit Hillary Clinton?
                                                                          The serious question now is .....
                                                                   are the American people with her, or are they about to quit?


                                                                                                
            Donald Trump says to Hillary Clinton ... Your Fired ... 


                             "Hillary, you're Fired!" - Crispy 9/11 clip (funny)

                                       

 

                                                                    

                         Hillary Clinton replies to Donald Trump ....
       ".... Don Please Do Not Fire Me I will be a good little girl for you and
      the American people from now on.. I Promise..Scouts Honour and all that..."



Some of the Best Donald Trump Comeback Lines






 

12 MINUTES OF BEST DONALD TRUMP INSULTS





The Takedown of America Underway – Corruption Top to Bottom in the USA, FBI Insider Spills the Beans

Sunday, September 4, 2016

http://beforeitsnews.com/opinion-conservative/2016/09/the-take-down-of-america-underway-corruption-top-to-bottom-in-the-usa-fbi-insider-spills-the-beans-3182289.html?currentSplittedPage=2

  

 Sent by SR

From an FBI insider   

A sad state of Affairs.. 

FBI insider confirms everyones worst suspicions.  The Hillary Clinton e-mail server was merely a distraction from the Clinton Foundation and most of Washington, D.C. is in up to their necks in what could be the biggest scandal of all times.  This inside info comes from someone claiming to be a high level FBI analyst whose job was to look at the records, with his notes added. The smoking gun is about to arrive and there are a lot of people involved.  To save everyone time, what follows here are the choice bits.  Looks like Trump and Putin hold some of the cards.  This could be the most interesting election ever.          

There is intense pressure within the FBI for us not to indict Hillary. I am posting from a position of near anonymity and enough plausible deniability to evade prosecution, as we have all been given gag orders. There is enough for Hillary and the entire government to be brought down. People do not realize how enormous this whole situation actually is. Whether she will be indicted or not depends on how much info about others involved gets out, and there are a lot of people involved. The real point of interest is the Clinton Foundation, not the e-mail server. We received the server from Benghazi, then from the server we found data on the Clinton Foundation. Then we realized the situation is much worse than previously thought.       

Super Classified Materials on the Clinton Email Server: Hillary had Special Access Programs on her server, which if made public, would literally cause an uprising and possibly foreign declarations of war. A Special Access Program is an intelligence program classified above top-secret. These programs are supposed to be held on closed servers at secret locations. The only way to get one is if you are specifically read on to a program, have a need to know, then you must physically go to a location and pass through several layers of security to even look at the program. A good example in non-classified terms would be the locations and operations of our intelligence operatives around the globe, or our missile silo locations.       

A Bigger Problem than Hillary: Killing Hillary would not cause this problem to go away.  The problem is with the Clinton Foundation as I mentioned, which you should just imagine as a massive spider web of connections and money laundering, implicating hundreds of high-level people. Though I do not have a high opinion of Hillary, she is just a piece -albeit a big piece of this massive shitstorm. Legal is asking preliminary questions about whether or not she has been coached (she has) and setting up the general line of questioning. I am a high level analyst though, so my job is only to look at her records.        

The Department of Justice is most likely looking to save itself. Find everyone involved in the Clinton Foundation, from its donors to its Board of Directors, and imagine they are all implicated.      

The ENTIRE Government is involved. My opinion is the entire government is guilty of treason, which is why Hillary’s death would not cease the investigation or prevent further scandals. Many, many people are involved. There already is enough to indict. FBI Director Comey has been trying to stall because he does not want to face the Clinton Machine, as well as the rest of Washington D.C.  But this case would explode into a million other cases if fully brought to light, and then we would be one agency competing against the entire government and a hoard of other interests. It is a very tense and uncomfortable position.  What Attorney General Loretta Lynch is saying is she will accept whatever they do and make her determination as she will. Nothing about her responsibilities has changed; she is simply trying to keep her hide intact.       

Foreign Powers Have some of the Documents, Trump has some of the Documents; Russia Will Probably Leak All Info they Have. Foreign powers are in possession of some of the documents we have analyzed, because they were hacked from the Clinton server. Trump has some files as well and likely plans to leak them and use them to his advantage soon. The leaks will have to be made in a non-transparent fashion. If we recommend, we literally hand over documentation implying the entire government is involved in treason at the highest levels and everyone is about to duck and cover, as well as some sensitive details of Special Access Programs which would obliterate national security. I am not sure, but some of my war strategy buddies are estimating a high probability that Russia will leak all of the info they have to the world, since Clinton wants to go to war with them and they have no desire to be in conflict with the U.S. If we do not recommend, it will look like a cover-up and Trump will use the perception to bolster his message. I did work in PsyOps once, and Trumps use of confirmation bias is legendary.       

Bill Clinton Will Likely Die This Year. If Trump Wins, Hillary Goes to Jail. Bill Clinton will likely die this year.  Everything is Corrupt, Even Trump is Dirty. The entire government is corrupt. No one is clean, not even Trump. Trump has donated to the Clinton Foundation in the past, though for fairly innocuous things like building permits and such. He is smart, so his tracks are covered well. But if any prosecutor wants to go very in-depth Trump would be brought on bribery charges. He could easily get out of them, but he would be charged nonetheless. We have our hands tied. My message to you and everyone on this board is do not get distracted by Clintons e-mails. Focus on the Foundation. All of the nightmarish truth is there. The e-mails will pale in comparison. I do not know of Trumps record, but from the case he definitely knew to limit his exposure and make it only look like a donation.       

A Multitude of Scandals.  Saudi Arabia visits and donates to the Clinton Foundation. Russian Uranium fiasco. Hillary and the Israel lobby, the Council on Foreign Relations. AIPAC. The list is endless.      

Three Choices Could Crash Eveerything. I will put it to you this way: You have three choices,
 A) turn over all of the information to the Department of Justice, make public a recommendation, the truth comes out, the entire world realizes how much the U.S. is meddling in foreign affairs and we go to war, the civilian population realizes how much foreign money influences our government, and a civil war begins.

B) You cherry-pick the data to implicate the people already in the eye of public opinion, so the chips fall on the heads of a select few and the whole system does not crash.  

 C) You do nothing and watch the unstable political climate to gauge how you will respond.  I am confident if Trump wins Hillary will be going to jail.      

The Problem is the Entire Government.  FBI Director Comey will likely resign in any case. FBI is being very quiet for a reason; most of us want to keep our jobs. Snowden has nothing to do with any of this.  Obama and Hillary do hate each other. Hillary hates black people and Obama dislikes recklessness. The problem is with the entire government. Hillary is just one component of that government.       

Hillary Sold Safe Access Programs to Overseas Donors. All I can tell you about the Safe Access Programs is Hillary had them, and she did not have proper authority to have any of them. They were leaked to her by someone, and she did sell them to overseas donors. Possessing them alone makes her guilty of treason. Obama is loosely tied to the Clinton Foundation, but much more tied in with the same people who donate to the Clinton Foundation. Russian borders, Ukraine, everywhere NATO is, the South China Sea, the Philippines, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Africa. George Soros is at the heart of all of this. If it comes down to it, I would fight. But most of us are of the opinion that Hillary will not be president, and having Trump in office makes our job that much easier. But right now we have to carefully wade through the mud.  As I stated before, Bill Clinton likely wanted Loretta Lynch to focus on the e-mail server and shy away from prosecuting the foundation. We will go to war with Russia and possibly China if Hillary wins the election. Needless to say if anyone has any doubts about the validity of the above info it stands to reason that the originator of this info has to conceal his identity as anyone present at the FBI hearings was sworn to secrecy and leaking any info would at least cost him his job and most likely some jail time to boot and at the worst scenario someone probably would put a contract out on him. 

Most of us know, at least the ones who have paid any attention to politics know that in the past anyone who in some way or another has crossed the Clinton’s  has met an unexplainable early demise and I believe Vince Foster was no exception.           

Some other content in this article appears to re-enforce its validity as whoever penned it, did not make out Trump as just an innocent bystander as even he used bribes whenever he thought it to be necessary to get approval for one of his many projects. Even so bribes should never be the road one has to embarked on, but in retrospect considering everything else whatever he has done pales in comparison with what the Clinton foundation is guilty of along with many other entities within our government.         

 Many of the younger generation leaning towards socialism, liberalism or maybe prefer to be called progressives as it doesn’t sound as harsh as being called a socialist may refute or maybe skeptical of the validity of the above article, but should keep the following in mind. The kind of socialism as it is being practiced and being preached now is a far cry from what it was during the days of Kennedy. As over time socialism has become quite radical and rather rabid as well with no holds barred and just about anything will go as long as it achieves the desired goal. If Kennedy, who was a liberal, would show up today, democrats undoubtedly would make every attempt to run him out of town accusing him to be a conservative.         

After considering and digesting the article you just have read you may want to give some serious thought who you are going to vote for, as I believe a government which is less than honest is not in the best interest of the public and in the long run is doomed to fail, like many others before have.                          

Once again the addition to he above article is just my personal take on this situation which may not be easy to resolve in a peaceful and quiet manner. I just hope that there are still enough wise and honest people left within the current regime who are willing to step up to the plate and somehow settle this issue without doing permanent damage to this once Great Nation.                   
 
This is my take ~ Saintgermaine 

From Captain Bertrand, Ret.

Friends and Associates: 

The information provided below by an FBI insider using the name “Saintgermaine” provides us with an inside look at what we can expect from a Hillary presidency. (There will be assassinations coming if Trump exposes this further, but the source says, there will be a proper time as both Trump and Putin are holding the cards).

There has been an elaborate conspiracy between this rogue government, the GOP, the DNC and several congressmen that need Hillary Clinton in office. The situation is so grave for all Americans, I urge YOU to read the report TWICE and understand how the puzzle is coming together and how certain countries are setting us up for WWIII with Russia.

Trump is NOT ignorant of what is happening and understands the consequences…….

He has worked both sides and made tons of money, but his conscience is with the America people and can stop WWIII.

The effort by mainstream media and elements within the intelligence community are (IMO) rogue communist agents.

The take-down of America has been underway and the truth is surfacing at a rapid rate. No wonder why THEY want to disarm Americans. Read below and discover why….

Note: There will be every attempt to call the report a hoax and (of course) the socialist fact checkers will comply, as they have for 9/11…..where it all began.  

Thank you Larry Jordan for your ability to find this stuff…..and if Bill Clinton in-fact dies this year from what many believe to be a syphilis related condition mimicking Parkinson’s, the rest of the insider’s report will be validated.  

“This inside info comes from someone claiming to be a high level FBI analyst whose job was to look at the records, with his notes added. The smoking gun is about to arrive and there are a lot of people involved.  To save everyone time, what follows here are the choice bits.  Looks like Trump and Putin hold some of the cards.  This could be the most interesting election ever.”          

From The Desk of  Capt. Dave Bertrand (Ret.)  Int’l Freight Captain with military and law enforcement background. Director of the Intelligence Support Agency Inc (I.S.A.) during the early 80′s, international aircraft repossession and government contractor. Following 9/11…trained DHS (counter-terrorism instructor), Border Security Specialist. Media Relations Director for MCDC, and Political Activist. 

After 9/11, it became apparent that American freedoms and liberties were under attack and those responsible are still dictating policies while undermining our constitution. My mission is to slice through the propaganda  and share important news among our network of patriots, military, law enforcement and selected news media sources. We are the pulse of America and we can win the battle against tyranny.

Opinions and discussion of today’s hard hitting topics. If you wish to be removed….reply within, or please forward. Email news will still be around after the U.N. censors news websites after October 1st.


 From Jimmy W.

Good read folks – take it for what it’s worth. Confirms what some of us already know to a certain level. My intel sources know intimate details regarding the Clinton Foundation, of which I recently inferred in a “letter to the editor” response.

E-mails are one thing – using them in a covert manner to cover the Foundation is another. The “insider” below is correct…the real smoking gun and high treason IS the Foundation.   

Both Bill and Hillary deserve the firing squad for selling secrets to enemy nations. Bill actually gave away secrets to China.

And some wonder why so-called Congressional Republicans have been against Trump. Their ass could very well be on the line in the election. The whole house needs to implode on all of them.  


From Craig Maus:

Sharing w/ALL bcc herein gentlemen w/permission to forward:

 

  We Confederates have described Washington as the BABYLON on the POTOMAC.

 We believe it to be a most FITTING description given the LEVEL of CORRUPTION that now presides over this country.

Long ago we told you that America was being sold out lock, stock and proverbial barrel.

Few then probably believed us & equally, probably dismissed our message as being too far-fetched to be believable…… but look at what the years hence have wrought?

We have a CRIMINAL running for the ‘Presidency’ in Hillary Rodham Clinton whose resume reads like that of a Tom Clancy novel….almost too unbelievable to the point that many are dismissing it out of hand because they can’t believe it is ALL TRUE!

Mr. Trump, likewise, has told you what we have said long ago- “That it is a Rigged System that has sold this country out!”

No matter what you may think of Mr. Trump, he has had the courage to tell it like it IS and coming from a man who has admitted that he was once part of the ‘Inner Circle’ knowing “full well how the GAME is played.”

The courage required to ‘Jump’ from the ‘Inner Circle’ into that of the Peoples Circle is BELIEVABLE given the FACT he has much to lose and little to gain given his position and that of his companies knowing full well that he is NOW A TARGET of the ELITES.

As noted, what YOU do come November 8th (election day) will CERTAINLY decide YOUR fate and that of this Country.

I believe a Trump win will throw a ‘material’ monkey wrench into the Labyrinth of Deceit that has descended upon us ALL thanks to Washington’s SELL-OUT of this country which We Confederates have been detailing along with the REVISED HISTORY that we have dared to Compare and Contrast with the Republic’s original HISTORY for decades.

What is at stake, CLEARLY, is YOUR children’s futures and that of YOUR grandchildren’s futures.

The Country has been deliberately divided for purposes of Political Alteration whose roots were planted long ago resulting from a Policy of RECONSTRUCTION whose PURPOSE was the creation of…..

The BABYLON on the POTOMAC! 

 Deo Vindice,

Craig Maus,

President, The Confederate Society of America

www.deovindice.org

BY the Eternal, but We Confederates told YOU SO!



                Criminal Profile of Hillary Clinton:

  Is Hillary Clinton a Psychopathic Serial Criminal?

                                                                                                                Sunday, August 28, 2016 

http://beforeitsnews.com/crime-all-stars/2016/08/criminal-profile-of-hillary-clinton-is-she-a-psychopathic-serial-criminal-2457143.html


                                                

 

By Jim Kouri  /  ConservativeBase.com

Hillary Clinton displayed certain characteristics as First Lady that one law enforcement officer labelled a “Jekyll and Hyde” personality that often frightened the White House staff. During interviews, a former Secret Service officer has claimed on news shows and in newspaper stories in the midst of the 2016 election cycle for President of the United States that her behavior fit the profile of a psychopath as described by the FBI’s Behavioral Analysis Division.

According to former Secret Service Agent Gary Byrne’s bookCrisis of Character: A White House Secret Service Officer Discloses His Firsthand Experience with Hillary, Bill, and How They Operate, Mrs. Clinton displayed behavior that some believe mirrors the behavior of psychopaths as described by the Federal Bureau of Investigation in their behavioral analysis profiles.

Psychopathy is a personality disorder manifested in people who use a mixture of charm, manipulation, intimidation, and occasionally violence to control others in order to satisfy their own selfish needs. Although the concept of psychopathy has been known for centuries, the FBI leads the world in the research effort to develop a series of assessment tools, to evaluate the personality traits and behaviors attributable to psychopaths.

                                                                                                
                                                                                           
Hillary Clinton wiped her server clean

Mrs. Clinton attempted to laugh her way out, explain her way out and then pretend ignorance when it came to her personal Internet server.

Interpersonal traits include glibness, superficial charm, a grandiose sense of self-worth, pathological lying, and the manipulation of others. The affective traits include a lack of remorse and/or guilt, shallow affect, a lack of empathy, and failure to accept responsibility. The lifestyle behaviors include stimulation-seeking behavior, impulsivity, irresponsibility, parasitic orientation, and a lack of realistic goals.

Research has demonstrated that in those criminals who are psychopathic, scores vary, ranging from a high degree of psychopathy to some measure of psychopathy. However, not all violent offenders are psychopaths and not all psychopaths are violent offenders.

If violent offenders are psychopathic, they are able to assault, rape, and murder without concern for legal, moral, or social consequences. This allows them to do what they want, whenever they want. Ironically, these same traits exist in men and women who are drawn to high-profile and powerful positions in society including political officeholders. “Is it any wonder that a sitting President of the United States or the governor of a state — namely Bill Clinton — would be involved in risky sexual behavior, sex crimes or even an alleged rape?

The relationship between psychopathy and serial killers is particularly interesting. All psychopaths do not become serial murderers. Rather, serial murderers may possess some or many of the traits consistent with psychopathy. Psychopaths who commit serial murder do not value human life and are extremely callous in their interactions with their victims. This is particularly evident in sexually motivated serial killers who repeatedly target, stalk, assault, and kill without a sense of remorse. However, psychopathy alone does not explain the motivations of a serial killer.

What doesn’t go unnoticed is the fact that some of the character traits exhibited by serial killers or other criminals (rapists, spousal-abusers, con artists) may be observed in many within the political arena. While not exhibiting physical violence, many political leaders display varying degrees of anger, feigned outrage and other behaviors. They also lack what most consider a “shame” mechanism. Quite simply, most serial killers and many professional politicians must mimic what they believe, are appropriate responses to situations they face such as sadness, empathy, sympathy, and other human responses to outside stimuli.

Understanding psychopathy becomes particularly critical to law enforcement during a serial murder investigation and upon the arrest of a psychopathic serial killer. The crime scene behavior of psychopaths is likely to be distinct from other offenders. This distinct behavior can assist law enforcement in linking serial cases.

Psychopaths are not sensitive to altruistic interview themes, such as sympathy for their victims or remorse/guilt over their crimes. They do possess certain personality traits that can be exploited, particularly their inherent narcissism, selfishness, and vanity. Specific themes in past successful interviews of psychopathic serial killers focused on praising their intelligence, cleverness, and skill in evading capture.

                                                                  

                                             Hillary Clinton has been accused of being honesty-impaired.

Does Hillary Clinton know the difference between the truth and lie, or does Hillary Clinton  believe a lie becomes the truth if enough people accept a lie as the truth or are not that interested in finding out  if it is the truth or a lie

Experts recognize that more research is needed concerning the links between serial murder and psychopathy, in order to understand the frequency and degree of psychopathy among serial murderers. This may assist law enforcement in understanding and identifying serial murderers.__Over the past twenty years, law enforcement and experts from a number of varying disciplines have attempted to identify specific motivations for serial murderers and to apply those motivations to different typologies developed for classifying serial murderers. These range from simple, definitive models to complex, multiple-category typologies that are laden with inclusion requirements. Most typologies are too cumbersome to be utilized by law enforcement during an active serial murder investigation, and they may not be helpful in identifying an offender.

As most homicides are committed by someone known to the victim, police focus on the relationships closest to the victim. This is a successful strategy for most murder investigations. The majority of serial murderers, however, are not acquainted with or involved in a consensual relationship with their victims.

For the most part, serial murder involves strangers with no visible relationship between the offender and the victim. This distinguishes a serial murder investigation as a more nebulous undertaking than that of other crimes. Since the investigations generally lack an obvious connection between the offender and the victim, investigators instead attempt to discern the motivations behind the murders, as a way to narrow their investigative focus.

Serial murder crime scenes can have bizarre features that may cloud the identification of a motive. The behavior of a serial murderer at crime scenes may evolve throughout the series of crimes and manifest different interactions between an offender and a victim. It is also extremely difficult to identify a single motivation when there is more than one offender involved in the series.

Identifying a homicide series is easier in rapidly-developing, high profile cases involving low risk victims. These cases are reported to law enforcement upon discovery of the crimes and draw immediate media attention.

In contrast, identifying a series involving high risk victims in multiple jurisdictions is much more difficult. This is primarily due to the high risk lifestyle and transitory nature of the victims. Additionally, the lack of communication between law enforcement agencies and differing records management systems impede the linkage of cases to a common offender.

While many political leaders will deny the assessment regarding their similarities with serial killers and other career criminals, it is part of a psychopathic profile that may be used in assessing the behaviors of many officials and lawmakers at all levels of government.

 

https://conservativebase.com/criminal-profile-of-hillary-clinton-is-she-a-psychopathic-serial-criminal/



                  Election Update: Clinton’s Bounce Appears Bigger Than Trump’s

                        Hillary Clinton at a rally at Fort Hayes
                             Metropolitan Education Center in              
                               Columbus, Ohio, on Sunday.

ANDREW HARNIK / AP

UPDATE (Aug. 1, 6:11 p.m.): Hillary Clinton’s post-convention lead over Donald Trump has continued to grow as more polls have come in, according to our models. Check our forecasts for the latest numbers.


Initial polls conducted after the Democratic National Convention suggest that Hillary Clinton has received a convention bounce. In fact, it appears likely that Clinton’s bounce will exceed Donald Trump’s, which measured at 3 to 4 percentage points. Thus, Clinton will potentially exit the conventions in a stronger position than she entered them, perhaps also making up for some of the ground she lost to Trump earlier in July. This is good news for Clinton, but we’ll need to wait a few weeks to see if she can sustain her bounce before we can conclude that the race has been fundamentally changed.

Before we continue, a quick note or two about terminology. When we refer to a candidate’s “bounce,” we mean the net gain in her standing in the polls, including changes to her opponent’s vote share. For example, if the previous XYZ News poll had it Clinton 42 percent, Trump 40 percent, and their new poll has it Clinton 44, Trump 39, we’d call that a 3-point bounce for Clinton, since Clinton gained 2 percentage points and Trump lost 1 point.1

Also, when evaluating the gains a candidate has made, it’s important to note when the previous poll was conducted. Based on our models, Clinton led by 6 to 7 percentage points throughout most of June, but her lead dissipated to around 3 percentage points by mid- to late July, just before the conventions. Then, after the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Trump pulled into an approximate tie with Clinton. It’s those post-RNC polls that make for the best comparison when describing Clinton’s bounce.

So far, however, the post-convention polls have been strong enough for Clinton that there isn’t a lot of need to worry about semantics. They suggest that she possibly holds a lead over Trump in the mid- to high single digits, instead of being tied with him. Here are the fully post-convention polls we’ve seen so far:

  • A CBS News poll has Clinton ahead by 5 percentage points, in the version of the poll that includes third-party candidates (which is the version FiveThirtyEight uses). Trump led Clinton by 1 point in a CBS News poll conducted just after the RNC, so that would count as a 6-point bounce for Clinton.
  • A Morning Consult poll also showed Clinton up by 5 percentage points, representing a 9-point swing toward her from a poll they conducted last week after the RNC.
  • A RABA Research national poll, conducted on Friday after the convention, has Clinton with a 15-point lead. RABA Research’s national poll has been something of a pro-Clinton outlier. Still, the trend in the poll is favorable for Clinton. She’d led Trump by 5 percentage points in RABA Research’s poll just after the RNC, meaning that she got a 10-point bounce.
  • Finally, a Public Policy Polling survey has Clinton up by 5 percentage points. Because PPP did not conduct a post-RNC poll, we can’t directly measure Clinton’s bounce. But their previous national poll, in late June, showed Clinton up by 4 percentage points. Therefore, their data tends to confirm our notion that the conventions may have reset the race to approximately where it was in June, which was a strong month of polling for Clinton.

There are also a couple of national tracking polls that contain some post-convention data, and they aren’t as strong for Clinton so far. The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll, which has generally shown favorable results for Trump, still shows Trump ahead by 4 percentage points, although Clinton has recovered slightly from a 7-point deficit a few days ago. Note, however, that the USC poll uses a week-long field period, so only about half of its interviews came after the DNC.2

Meanwhile, the Ipsos/Reuters tracking poll last released data on Friday, covering interviews from Monday through Friday — so most of the poll was conducted during the DNC rather than after it. The short version is that their head-to-head poll (without third-party candidates) shows a bounce back to Clinton, while their version with third-party candidates (the version FiveThirtyEight uses) does not. But Ipsos’s data is a bit of a mess right now because they changed their methodology to remove “neither” as an option in their head-to-head poll. Although the wording on the third-party poll was not changed, it was indirectly impacted by the shift.3 We’re continuing to include the poll in our model, but it’s probably not worth a lot of mental energy to unpack the various editions of it.

Speaking of our models, they’ve begun to show a rebound for Clinton, although it will take more data before any convention bounce is fully priced into them. Clinton’s clearest gains are in our now-cast, which estimates what would happen in an election held today. She’s now a 64 percent favorite in the now-cast, up from having a 45 percent chance when Trump briefly surpassed her in the now-cast last week.

Our forecasts for Nov. 8 haven’t changed as much yet. Clinton is a 62 percent favorite according to our polls-plus forecast, which adjusts the polls for potential convention bounces. That should be a familiar figure, since Clinton has been between 60 and 63 percent in the polls-plus forecast every day since July 17. Finally, our polls-only forecast is the most stubborn of the bunch, showing Clinton as only a 53 percent favorite. Let me try to walk you through the “thinking” of each model:

Polls-only: I tell you what, this thing has been trending to Trump for weeks. The guy was down 7 percentage points in June, and now he’s just about tied it up. What’s that? You’re telling me that some of that was a convention bounce? Sorry, bud — you didn’t program any assumptions about a convention bounce into me. So I wouldn’t know anything about that. The Trump train was rolling down the tracks. You expect me to turn around on a dime based on a few good polls for Clinton? If she’s really gained that much, I’m gonna have to see more proof. I know you think I’m as stubborn as an old Cray-2, but one of these days, I’ll save your behind from getting too far out in front of itself.

Now-cast: I’m so excited about these polls! Last week I thought TRUMP WAS WINNING! Now I think CLINTON’S WINNING! Maybe Clinton’s winning by A LOT! But even for me, four polls isn’t that much data. A few more good polls for Clinton and I’m going to get REALLY EXCITED!

Polls-plus: I’m not sure what you’re all so worked up about. That convention bounce for Mr. Trump? I predicted it ahead of time. I’ve been the very picture of composure, really, barely moving at all over the past two weeks. I must say, though, that I disagree with my friend, Mr. Polls-only. According to my calculations, Mr. Trump’s momentum stopped a couple of weeks ago. I don’t think he should get a lot of credit for that middling convention bounce of his. So I’m happy enough to believe that the next shift in the race will be toward Mrs. Clinton. But be careful, friend. Mrs. Clinton may be in the midst of a convention bounce of her own. Let’s wait for a couple of weeks for things to settle in.


It's About 100 Days Till Election Day

Personally, I think polls-plus makes the most persuasive case for itself and is telling the story that best fits the evidence we have in hand. We know that the polls can be pretty wild around the party conventions. We also know that, by a few weeks after the conventions, they do a very good job of picking the eventual winner:

But we don’t have a lot of evidence about what happens when the parties hold back-to-back conventions, because it’s a relatively new development. Polls just after the 2008 conventions significantly inflated the standing of John McCain and Sarah Palin, who held their convention last. And post-convention polls in 2012 also mildly exaggerated the standing of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, when Democrats held their convention second. While our now-cast may show a relatively sudden shift toward Clinton, our other models will be more cautious, moving a couple of percentage points at a time toward Clinton if she continues to poll well over the next few weeks.

POLLING AVERAGE

YEAR

HEADING INTO CONVENTIONS

30 DAYS AFTER CONVENTIONS

ACTUAL RESULT

1972

Nixon +16.0

Nixon +29.7

Nixon +23.2

1976

Carter +13.0

Carter +4.0

Carter +2.0

1980

Reagan +6.0

Reagan +2.6

Reagan +9.7

1984

Reagan +14.3

Reagan +16.8

Reagan +18.2

1988

Dukakis +6.7

Bush +3.0

Bush +7.7

1992

Bush +1.0

Clinton +11.7

Clinton +5.6

1996

Clinton +16.8

Clinton +16.0

Clinton +8.5

2000

Bush +4.3

Gore +2.0

Gore +0.5

2004

Kerry +2.7

Bush +1.8

Bush +2.5

2008

Obama +3.8

Obama +3.1

Obama +7.3

2012

Obama +2.3

Obama +1.9

Obama +3.9

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.   @natesilver538


Hillary Clinton's edge over Donald Trump gets less comfortable

Why Trump v Clinton will be an unpopularity contest

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/04/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-general-election-analysis

 

            Why ?.............. Donald Trump
 
                               

                                             v

                                   Hillary Clinton
                     
                          

                         will be an unpopularity contest

                                     A Clinton-Trump face-off in November looks more likely than ever.
                                                        With both candidates having high disapproval ratings, victory may go to the least disliked

After Tuesday’s Indiana primary, it seems inevitable that in the presidential election in November, Americans will choose between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

It wasn’t always this way. Last summer, Trump was dismissed by some experts as “not a real candidate”, with a 2% chance of winning his party’s nomination.
And although Clinton has been the Democratic frontrunner sinceannouncing her bid in April 2015, that a former first lady is running at all is still no small surprise.

The question now looming is which candidate can make it all the way to the White House.

Making predictions about November in May may be asking for trouble, but by some metrics it looks like Trump’s luck may have run out.
When polls have asked voters to imagine a scenario in which they must choose between Trump and Clinton, most have said they would choose Clinton.

Since May last year, 67 polls have pitted the two candidates against one another. In 58 such polls, respondents chose Clinton over Trump.
Three polls found the two candidates tied and six gave Trump the win – on average by less than four percentage points.


                                                      


 Head-to-head polls have nearly all shown Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump.
Currently her lead is at 6.5 percentage points but the gap has and will continue to change. Photograph: DSK/AFP/Getty Images

 

Clinton and Trump Have Terrible
Approval Ratings. Does It Matter?

By KAREN YOURISH JUNE 3, 2016

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/06/03/us/elections/trump-and-clinton-favorability.html?_r=0

Hillary Clinton and Donald J. Trump head into the presidential race with the worst favorable ratings of any presumed Democratic or Republican nominee in decades.

Another bit of good news for both candidates is that the two candidates are decidedly more popular among their parties’ faithfuls.

“The image of the candidate among his or her own party is a critical metric because it can be an indicator of turnout,” Mr. Newport said.

Despite their net positives among partisans, both candidates are faring worse than their recent predecessors, though experts predict that could change.

“Mr. Trump has been an unusually divisive nominee, but I think the Gallup data since early April is showing pretty conclusively that the party is coming together behind him,” Mr. Franklin said.

Likewise, Mrs. Clinton needs Mr. Sanders to drop out in order for the Democratic party to unite behind her.

What to Expect From the Conventions

With 160 days left until Election Day, the national party conventions this summer could be the candidates’ best chance to increase their popularity. Mr. Sanders’s insistence on remaining in the race through the convention could temper Mrs. Clinton’s potential convention bounce, the lift she would get once the party’s convention ends.

Bill Clinton was the master of the convention bounce in 1992; Al Gore got a lift in 2000.

The 2008 Republican convention gave John McCain a notable increase, but it did not last. The Democratic convention that year unified Democrats behind Barack Obama after a bruising primary battle with Mrs. Clinton.

“If the 2016 convention unifies Democrats in anything like the way it did in 2008, there will be some boost in Clinton’s support, especially if Sanders gives her a strong endorsement and brings people back into the fold,” Mr. Franklin said. “It’s conceivable that Trump produces an extravaganza that gives him some boost as well.”


 
 

Hillary Clinton's edge over Donald Trump gets less comfortable

Donald Trump, addressing supporters at a recent rally, questioned whether rival Hillary Clinton 'looks presidential.' (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

U.S. presidential election projections by state, as of Aug. 23, 2016. Size of circle represents the number of votes the state is worth in the electoral college.

Hillary Clinton's edge over Donald Trump gets less comfortable

Polls point to a positive trend line for Donald Trump, but Hillary Clinton's lead remains formidable

By Éric Grenier, CBC News Posted: Aug 23, 2016

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-uselection-update-aug22-1.3730844

While Hillary Clinton remains the heavy favourite in the U.S. presidential election, recent polls suggest her victory isn't looking as assured as it once did.

Recently, the CBC's Presidential Poll Tracker was projecting that enough states were considered "safe" for the Democratic nominee to secure victory even if she lost all of the remaining swing states to Donald Trump. If an election had been held last week, a Clinton win would have been projected with more than 95 per cent confidence. 

  • Trump losing support from reliably Republican demos
  • Clinton campaign halfway to $1 billion fundraising goal
  • Presidential Poll Tracker: Follow the latest numbers

That's no longer the case because Clinton's electoral college vote tally among safe Democratic states has dropped from 273 — just above the 270 needed to take the White House — to 253. Her lead over Trump in the national polls has slipped from a high of 6.4 points among decided voters in early August to 5.1 points today.

This movement in the electoral college has largely been driven by Clinton's narrowing lead in the national polls, though some surveys at the state level also point to a few tightening races. Still, one poll shows that a linchpin state in Donald Trump's electoral map may be moving out of his reach.

The three most recent U.S. polls in the Presidential Poll Tracker point to a trend line that is slowly moving against Hillary Clinton.

  • An Ipsos/Reuters poll put Clinton ahead by five points among decided voters. Her edge in the Ipsos poll done a week earlier was six points.
  • A poll from Morning Consult had Clinton ahead by four points among decided voters, compared to a lead of seven points earlier in the month.
  • And the daily tracking poll from UPI/CVOTER has gone from a Clinton lead that was as wide as seven points to a tie with Trump.

These polls moved Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral college votes from "safe" to "likely" Democrat status, as the last survey conducted in Pennsylvania dates from Aug. 7. That coincided with Clinton's widest lead in the national polls. The state-level data is now relatively older, so the negative trend line in the national numbers carries increased weight.

Nevertheless, Clinton is still projected to be ahead in Pennsylvania by about eight points.

Some swing states inching to the right?

A handful of swing states have seen polling numbers that are more positive for Trump than has been the case for some time. But it's difficult to discern a trend line from them.

Gravis Marketing, a polling firm that has generally reported better numbers for Trump, suggests the Republican nominee's chances are looking up in the Carolinas.

In South Carolina, Trump was up by five points among decided voters, whereas a Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey earlier this month had him ahead by only two points.

In North Carolina, Trump was up by one point among decided voters. Recent polls from Marist College and PPP had Clinton ahead in the state by nine and two points, respectively.

And in Iowa, a CBS/YouGov poll put Clinton and Trump in a tie. This is in line with what other surveys have been showing in what appears to be the most tightly contested state in the country.

But is this a sign of an improving — though still very challenging — electoral map for Donald Trump? These pollsters haven't been active in these three states until recently, so it's impossible to know for certain whether their trend line is leaning towards the Republicans. Nevertheless, it does match the national trend.

Bad news for Trump in Ohio

It should still be noted that Hillary Clinton remains in an enviable position. Though her tally in the electoral college is 253 votes among "safe" states only, that extends to 320 votes when "likely" states are included. This means Clinton could lose battleground states like North Carolina, Nevada and Iowa and still have some 50 electoral college votes to spare.

She could then lose any two of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and still take the White House.

Ohio is particularly important to Donald Trump. It was host to the Republican National Convention in July. No Republican has won the presidency without Ohio. 

That makes the YouGov poll particularly problematic for him. Though two recent surveys (from Marist and Quinnipiac) put Clinton up two to four points, the YouGov survey has her ahead by six points among decided voters.

While 55 per cent of Ohioans said Clinton "is prepared to be commander-in-chief," just 35 per cent said the same thing about Trump. And while 51 per cent felt Clinton "is a risky choice," fully 70 per cent thought so for Trump.

Nevertheless, trust remains Clinton's Achilles heel — recent news about more unreleased emails certainly won't help. The poll found just 40 per cent of Ohioans felt Donald Trump "tells the truth," but only 33 per cent said the same thing of the Democratic nominee. 

This does limit Clinton's ability to pull ahead more definitively.

In Iowa, where the YouGov poll suggests there's a tie and Trump has just as much support as he does in Ohio, he scored worse on all of these measures. But so did Clinton. That suggests Trump may have a floor that his campaign's problems can't sink him below, but Clinton can be moved into a tie with Trump in some states in part due to her problems on issues like trust.

It raises the question: just how badly would Donald Trump be losing if his opponent wasn't Hillary Clinton?

  • The Pollcast: Subscribe to Éric Grenier's podcast
  • ​Polls, endorsements and money: measuring the Tory leadership race

The Presidential Poll Tracker includes all published mainstream surveys, a list of which can be found here. The polls are weighted by sample size and date, as well as the reliability of each pollster as rated by FiveThirtyEight.com. The electoral college is projected by applying the same weighting standards to state-level polls and combining this with a uniform swing model, based on how the current national polling average compares with the 2012 presidential election. Surveys included in the model vary in terms of sample size and methodology and have not been individually verified by the CBC.



                                                             
       Hillary Clinton V Donald Trump for the USA President

                                                            

                                       Hillary Clinton

                                                          v

                                                                           

            Donald Trump: how the US election battle will be fought

 Paul McGeough

Race to White House: Full coverage

Bill, Bernie, lead cheers for history-making Clinton

Obama's full speech to the DNC



http://www.smh.com.au/world/hillary-clinton-v-donald-trump-how-the-us-election-battle-will-be-fought-20160728-gqfrai.html

Philadelphia: And so, into the night – after Cleveland, Donald Trump, like a lost character from The Simpsons, offers himself, alone, as an unreal fix to very real problems in today's America; after Philadelphia, Hillary Clinton offers variations on a questionable status quo, and hopes enough will rub off on her from Obama and Biden to win her the big house.

 

DNC: Clinton nukes Trump on security

US presidential nominee Hillary Clinton asks the Democratic National Convention if Donald Trump has the temperament to be the country's Commander-in-Chief.

Oddly, for two candidates who have been part of the American consciousness for decades, there's a bit of a political orphan in each.

Trump, the angry one, has been abandoned by the Republican establishment – and is a danger to himself; Clinton, the insecure one, is being crowded by the Democratic establishment – lest she harm herself.

US President Barack Obama will add his weight to Hillary Clinton's campaign to get into the White House. Photo: Bloomberg

For the next three months, we'll be transfixed by a contest between these two, the most unpopular or unappealing candidates ever to seek the US presidency, in a struggle that's less about party affiliation than it is about a voter's sense of whether they are winners or losers in a new and rapidly-changing America.

Trump pitches a portrait of apocalyptic America to those who believe they made America great, whites who sense they are being cheated as immigrants snatch their jobs; factories go offshore; and every Muslim is a clear and present danger.

Advertisement

Clinton counters – diversity and inclusiveness makes America greater than ever.

Just look at the Democratic convention – the African-American Michelle Obama spoke of playing with her daughters on the lawns of the White House, a national monument built by slaves; and the first Jewish American to win a presidential primary contest was introduced by the first Muslim member of congress.

Trump would rather hurl insults than mount a rational argument. Photo: New York Times

Trump will stop the drift – he's the "law and order" candidate who denounces the first black president as "the most ignorant" in the country's history and in a platform the likes of which has not been seen in US history, he has shredded the narrative that American exceptionalism comes from its embrace of immigrants.

By her very gender, Clinton's candidacy represents more change and her policies offer more still – fewer guns, more immigrants; and acknowledgements that black lives do matter.

Former US president Bill Clinton says his wife is the 'best change-maker' around. Photo: Bloomberg

The wagons are circled; this is war. Listen to Massachusetts Senator and Clinton surrogate, Elizabeth Warren: "Donald Trump's America is an America of fear and hate; an America where we all break apart – whites against blacks against Latinos; Christians against Muslims and Jews; straights against gays; everyone against immigrants. Race, religion, heritage, gender – the more factions the better."

Straddling the middle ground at the Democratic convention on Wednesday evening, Democrat turned Republican turned independent and billionaire former mayor of New York, Michael Bloomberg, urged a vote for Clinton with a passionate plea – "we need a problem solver, not a bomb thrower".

Polls are published at a furious rate, but most are about how voters feel now – not in three months time. Also, the election is not a pure popular vote – a body known as the Electoral College appoints the president. The college has 538 electors apportioned among the states based on population and a candidate needs a majority of 270 to secure the presidency.

Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia does try to look over the horizon, and by his current reckoning, Clinton has it in the bag – with 347 college votes that are safe, likely or leaning to her; by contrast, Trump has only 191 votes that are safe, likely or leaning to him.

But Sabato hedges, kind-of: "If the election were held today, it would almost certainly be closer than that – and Trump could very well win. But the election is still about 100 days away [and] we still see Clinton with an edge."

Another analyst who models the data to predict a November outcome is the respected Nate Silver, of website Five Thirty Eight, who writes this week with an abundance of caution – "for now, we can say that Clinton isn't just going to glide to victory. Trump has a real chance at becoming president, and although Clinton is still favoured, she's already had a bumpy ride".

Trump picked up a post-convention bounce this week, by which he's nudging ahead of Clinton by about one point in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls – Clinton can expect a similar bounce in the coming days.

As interesting as the polls are the predictions of pundits, conservative and progressive, and their calculations on a dozen or so battleground states where the real war will be fought (in about 40 other states, US elections are mere window-dressing).

Michael Moore, the outspoken documentary maker, is adamant the next president will be Trump.

Muddling his metaphors, Moore predicts Trump will be carried by a Brexit-like vote in the Rustbelt states of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; and by the so-called "Jesse Ventura effect" – if Minnesota could elect a professional wrestler as governor in the 1990s, then all of America is capable of electing Trump, who Moore describes as "this wretched, ignorant, dangerous part-time clown and full-time sociopath".

Moore bills Trump's imminent win as "The Last Stand of the Angry White Man".

On his blog, he writes: "There is a sense that power has slipped out of their hands, that their way of doing things is no longer how things are done. This monster, the 'Feminazi', the thing that as Trump says, 'bleeds through her eyes or wherever she bleeds', has conquered us – and now, after having had to endure eight years of a black man telling us what to do, we're supposed to just sit back and take eight years of a woman bossing us around? After that it'll be eight years of the gays in the White House! Then the transgenders!"

In The Washington Post, Chris Cillizza picks up on the Brexit analogy and invokes Lewis Carroll to take a stab at what's going on – "amid all of that empirical evidence, it's important to remember that we may be through the looking glass, politically speaking.

"Meaning that there are bits of evidence everywhere – from Trump's remarkable run to the Republican nomination to the Brexit vote – that suggest that not only the old way of doing things, but also the old way of measuring successes and failures is no longer operative."

Considered by some as a thinking conservative, commentator George Will was one of the few Republicans who stood on principle in the face of the Trump juggernaut – he resigned from the party.

Will now urges Clinton to mount an unorthodox version of Ronald Reagan's 1980 campaign – Reagan won by offering himself as a safe choice over the incumbent Democrat Jimmy Carter. And, he writes, she can take advantage of an inbuilt flaw in the Trump persona – he radiates anger and the last angry man to be elected president was Andrew Jackson in the 1830s.

Will figures that Clinton could take Florida, a state that historically is more Republican than the rest of the country, but these days is rated as a swing state; and he quotes pre-convention polls in which she was leading by good margins in Virginia and Colorado. Mormons are disgusted by Trump, he writes, and they could deliver Arizona, a state in which they account for 11 per cent of voters but which has voted for a Democratic president only twice since World War II.

Based on an averaging of polls by Real Clear Politics and with the exception of Florida, which is a virtual tie, Clinton leads by margins of 0.8 per cent to 5.6 per cent in seven other swing states – Ohio, 0.8 per cent; Pennsylvania, 4.4 per cent; Michigan, 5.2 per cent; New Hampshire, 3.7 per cent; Virginia, 5.3 per cent; North Carolina, 2 per cent; and Wisconsin, 5.6 per cent.

The most recent New York Times/CBS poll has Trump ahead of Clinton, 53-38, among white voters who have not been to college. It's the other way around with whites with a degree – Clinton is in front, 47-37.

Democratic pollster Mark Mellman explains: "[Trump's] strength is concentrated almost exclusively with non-college-educated whites. And when you put together college-educated whites with minority communities and other groups that he had assaulted and insulted, it's a pretty big majority of the country [that's against him]."

And yet, we keep hearing that this is a close contest.

If the message from Cleveland was that strongman Trump would belt the US into shape; from Philadelphia, it was that change-maker Clinton would negotiate, cajole and shame Americans into finding the best in themselves.

The convention portrait of Clinton reveals a remarkable activist life – always finding something that needs to be fixed, at the grass roots for women and children, or in the geopolitical big-picture, in whatever war is in the news, global warming or whatever.

In video presentations and speeches by relatives of victims of war and gun violence, Trump seemed always to be talking about going to the coalface – Clinton was already at the coalface. Trump was getting off on grief while Clinton was in the room with the victims – trying to salve grief; trying to get something done.

When the flaws are airbrushed and the endearing tributes from the likes of Gabrielle Giffords, the Arizona congresswoman who survived horrific injuries from an attempted assassination in 2011, and from the Mothers of the Movement, whose children died as a result of questionable police conduct, wash over, the response should be an immediate: "I'm with her." Yes?

Well, there's a problem. Selling Clinton is a bit like selling Obamacare to Americans. Display and discuss each aspect of the candidate or the healthcare system, and they like it – but bundle them all up as this person or that health scheme, and they baulk.

In an appearance that was more a love-letter than convention speech, former president Bill Clinton tried to shake off the perception of his wife as a status-quo candidate, describing her grit as a reformer and billing her as "the best darned change-maker I ever met in my entire life".

The former president who wants to be the country's "first gentleman", said of the would-be president who had been a first lady: "You could drop her in any trouble spot, pick one, come back in a month and somehow, some way, she will have made it better."

"Making it better" means that Clinton will have to convince a good number of traditional Democratic voters that she can do more for them than Trump might – their plight is unemployment, wage stagnation and social disenfranchisement; and Clinton's challenge is to convince them, not only that as a Washington insider she was not an architect of their crises, but that as president she can do something about it.

Either by winning or losing, Clinton and Trump will reveal the extent to which white people in particular have lost faith in the American dream – Republicans and Democrats alike. In that, the challenge for Trump is easier than for Clinton because she is the insider; he's not.

But in rejecting the Trump depiction of modern America, there's a risk that Clinton will be seen to be rejecting or dismissing a malaise that is as real as David Brooks describes in The New York Times: "Americans are no longer confident in their national project. They no longer trust their institutions or have faith in their common destiny. This is a crisis of national purpose. It's about personal identity and the basic health of communal life. Americans' anger and pessimism are more fundamental than anything that can be explained by GDP statistics."

That said, an error of the Democrat's convention planning might have been that, in their determination to defend the Obama record, the overall impact was more of the convention as cheerleader for the status quo than a heartfelt understanding of a need for change in the face of great frustration and division in the country. In this context, Clinton policy positions that might deliver substantive change, if executed, were forced on her by the success of the hard-fought primaries campaign by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.

The insider-outsider element of this campaign can't be understated.

Prominent Republicans have run a mile from Trump, to the extent that he has virtually no boldface named surrogates. By contrast, Clinton has President and Michelle Obama, Vice-President Joe Biden, Sanders and Bloomberg and a promised, but yet to be unveiled, team of disaffected GOP big wigs who will campaign for her.

That could backfire – Trump's followers are so angered, that they are more inclined to believe what he says than to listen to others. At the same time, some will have chosen to believe Sander's depiction of Clinton as the ultimate insider in the course of the Democratic fight for the nomination – if only because Trump told them that Sanders was right.

By any conventional measure Trump should have been politically dead in the water long ago, with any of his nutty pronouncements serving as the bullet – from building a border wall to banning Muslims to inviting Moscow to spy on Hillary Clinton. His obsession with his own body parts, his coarse conduct and his treatment of women and various minorities ought to have ended his run, but Trump is still standing.

The insider argument means that Trump is where he is in the polls, simply because he is not Clinton. Her bad numbers accounted for a big pool of "undecided" voters whose numbers are shrinking now, as they move to Trump in a tightening race.

A recent poll found a remarkable 77 per cent of voters believed that Trump would change how Washington works – though only a third of them figured he would be for the better. Only 45 per cent saw Clinton as a change-maker – and only a bit more than half of them thought she would be for the good.

Coming out of the convention, Clinton's challenge is huge – she has to convince a significant number of Americans she is human and trustworthy, and that her husband was right – she is a darned good change-maker and a safe pair of hands.

In this she does have a strength that Americans have observed over the years without seeming to be impressed by it. Here's how Michelle Obama framed it as she reviewed the Clinton life story on Monday night: "There were plenty of moments when Hillary could have decided this work was too hard. She never takes the easy way out. And Hillary Clinton has never quit on anything in her life. When I think about the kind of president that I want for my girls, that's what I want. And that's why in this election, I'm with her!"

It's true – Clinton has never quit. Question now is, are the American people with her, or are they about to quit?


Donald Trump says to Hillary Clinton ... Your Fired ... 

 

 

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

POLL CHART

2016 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

HuffPost Model

Our model of the polls suggests Clinton is very likely leading. (In >99% of simulations, Clinton led Trump.)

Choices

Click a choice to show or hide it on the chart.

,  Trump 40.0% , Undecided 6.8% ,  Other 5.8%

This chart shows the results of polls that offered Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton as the only named options. Some surveys offered respondents an "other" option. View the chart for a Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson matchup here.

 
 


US presidential elections 2016 poll tracker: Latest Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton figures and forecasts

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-presidential-elections-2016-poll-tracker-latest-donald-trump/

The average for the last 5 pools for the Democratic and republican candidates for the 2016 USA  Presidential Election

41.2% Trump                      46% Clinton

25th August 2016-08-25

 

The clash between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is set to be brutal, with America being dominated by the race to replace Barack Obama in the White House.





Until election day on 8 November, follow our poll tracker to keep on track on with who's top. It ta
kes an average of the last five polls published on RealClearPolitics.

19 May 2016 was the first time that Republican Donald Trump pulled ahead of Democrat Hillary Clinton in the average of national polls. He was 0.2 percentage points ahead of Clinton on May 22, leading to some claiming "it's probably time to panic" - although the next poll put Clinton back ahead.

Clinton had held a lengthy double-digit lead over Trump, who wasonce a Republican outsider. This has been eroded by the popularity of Trump, although it has somewhat opened up again after she secured a pledge to work together from her Democrat rival, Senator Bernie Sanders.

Trump's polling had previously drawn close to Clinton's during last October, as his appearance on Saturday Night Live coincided with Clinton facing pressure in a trial on the deaths of four Americans in Libya in 2012.

Following a series of gaffes by Trump, the Republican nominee has seen Clinton get ahead in the polls again, now maintaining around a six point lead.

US elections: Clinton's lead over TrumpWinning candidate's lead over rival (based on average of last five polls)Jan '16Oct '15Apr '16Jul '16-505101520 Monday, Jun 27, 2016 Spread: 6.4

Source: RCP

A word of caution, however: polling so far away from the election is unlikely to be reflective of the final score. A lot can change. 

At this stage of the race in 2004, as Nate Silver notes, John Kerry had a similar lead over George W Bush as Clinton's current lead over Trump.

The New York Times has also worked out that, at the the convention stage, a simple polling average has differed from the final result by about nine percentage points. So, with the polls being so close, anything could still happen.

Why are the US election polls so close?

One of the reasons that the polls had been closing is that the Republicans were rallying behind Trump. This has since been put under jeopardy, as a couple of big party figures refused to endorse the nominee.

Meanwhile, a recent YouGov poll showed that just over half of supporters of Bernie Sanders - Clinton's Democratic rival - would back Clinton.

Sanders also polled better against Trump than Clinton, while he was still in the race. 61 per cent of his backers viewed Mrs Clinton unfavourably, while 72 per cent say she is "not honest and trustworthy".

Despite this, Sanders has pledged his support for the victorious Democrat nominee, saying: "This campaign is not about Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders or any other candidate who is standing for president. This campaign is about the needs of the American people."

Still, Clinton holds a big demographic advantage over Trump. AWashington Post poll indicated that 69 per cent of non-whites and 52 per cent women favour Clinton, while 57 per cent of whites and men support Trump.

What about the American states?

When it comes to the final presidential race, the Democrat and Republican candidates will go head to head to win the 50 American states. Each state has a certain number of electoral college votes based on population.

This system matters, as the popular vote is less important than the electoral college vote. If Clinton's campaign is buoyed by big Democratic states such as New York, New Jersey, Illinois and California, these populous states could lead her to victory.

For example, in 2008, Barack Obama won 53 per cent of the vote - but this led to 68 per cent of the electoral college vote. Such highly populated states played a large role when they backed the current president.

Swing states - states that regularly switch between Democrat and Republican between elections - are also important.

States like Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia have the power to swing the election. So far, neither Trump nor Clinton has a significant lead in these crucial states.


Republican primaries map: How Trump won over the Republicans

Democrat primaries map: How Clinton held onto the Democrats

What are the odds on the American presidential election?

It has long been said of predicting sporting outcomes that the bookies don’t get it far wrong, working out probabilities with complicated mathematics based on the choices of their thousands of paying punters.

After last year’s surprise General Election result, many political followers have lost faith in pollsters and prefer to look at the odds to predict the future.

Hillary Clinton has been odds-on favourite since the end of February, but Trump has steadily caught her up as his Republican rivals dropped out. Last July he was a 25/1 shot while Hillary was already at evens.

Ladbroke's latest odds for the next US president are:

  • Hilary Clinton 1/4
  • Donald Trump 3/1

 

 


             


             Nibiru Planet X preparing for 2017 [ disclosure files] Info4change



Nibiru Will Pass Earth Before November 2017, The Evidence, Invesigator David Meade


Published on Feb 13, 2016

Lead Investigator David Meade discusses Nibiru & claims it Will Pass Earth Before November 2017.
Special thanks to Bob Evans for sending me many of the photos used in this podcast. Thank you also Breezy @ 
http://chani.invisionzone.com The Chani Project is a great alternative news forum.




Marshall Masters - Planet X is now between Mars and Jupiter (November 2015)

Published on Aug 16, 2016



NIBIRU IS ON A CRASH COURSE WITH EARTH ON SEPTEMBER 2016? (EXPLAINED)


Published on Aug 26, 2016
Credits

Nibiru en el cielo de Rusia




Credits:
Nibiru en el cielo de Rusia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nqa52...
Nibiru septiembre 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsgAZ...
Como crear el efecto de dos soles
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jSop...


PAGINA WEB
http://www.gabehash.com/
YOUTUBE
http://www.youtube.com/Gabehash
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http://www.youtube.com/GabehashTV
 (English Channel)
TWITTER
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FACEBOOK
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PAGINA WEB
http://www.gabehash.com/
YOUTUBE
http://www.youtube.com/Gabehash
 (Canal Español)
http://www.youtube.com/GabehashTV
 (English Channel)
TWITTER
https://twitter.com/GABEHASH
FACEBOOK
http://www.facebook.com/GabeHashOfficial
Russia: a new video is going around internet and social network about one of the greatest conspiracies that has gone around internet on the last years.

For those who don´t know about planet X, also known as Nibiru in Babylonian mythology as a celestial body associated with the god Marduk. Nibiru means “cross way” or “transition place”.

According to the so called ufologists, conspirators and tabloids, Nibiru is visible but NASA is hiding the information.

For them, Nibiru is a planet beyond Neptune which crosses the orbits of the other planets, and their argument for not seeing it is that the human Eye can only see the colors that are in the color spectrum of visible light, which are on the wavelength of 400 to 700nm. But infrared light has a greater wavelength and we need a camera to detect it.

While some think this is the type of light that Nibiru emits, others argue that Nibiru is a planet and so it must reflect the sunlight and shouldn´t have no own light as stars does. The alleged planet has never been seen or detected by instruments.

The scientist community has given their opinion about Nibiru several times and has denied the existence of such a planet. Astronomers also say that “the persistent statements about an near invisible planet are simply absurd”.





BREAKING: Astronomers Finally Declare Nibiru Is There!



Published on Sep 1, 2016

(Please do Subscribe, Share, Comment, and Check out other vids here. Thank you so much for doing so :) I love you all Jacob)

Renound Astronomers from the Northern Arizona University have finally announced that Planet x, planet 9, Nibiru is most likely there... This recent discovery verifies everything many of us have been saying. This as well as discoveries from SETI and Secchi tell us THINGS ARE CHANGING! Enjoy and let me know what you think.

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Making history: One of these two will make it to the White House

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36202424

It took a while, but now we finally know which two candidates will fight it out in the race for the White House.

Donald Trump will be the Republican candidate, something few would have predicted a little more than 12 months ago.

And after the Democrats' convention in Philadelphia, we know Hillary Clinton will be their candidate.

Whatever happens from this point on, the outcome will be historic. This is how:

1) Twilight years


Barack Obama being inaugurated in January 2009 - if he looks young here, it's because 

When Barack Obama first walked through the White House front door in January 2009, he was aged 47, and was the fifth-youngest president in history. Theodore Roosevelt was the youngest, at 42 years and 322 days.

The next one will be a fair bit older, whatever happens.

Donald Trump celebrated his 70th birthday on 14 June. If elected in November, he would be the oldest president in history (Ronald Reagan was 69 when he took office).

Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, turns 69 some two weeks before the election, and would become the second-oldest president on inauguration. She would replace William Henry Harrison, who became president in 1841 (and was the last president born on British soil).

2) New York, New York

Welcome to your next president, New York 

Trump v Clinton is the first presidential contest between New Yorkers since 1944, when the governor of New York, Thomas E Dewey, ran against the incumbent, Franklin D Roosevelt.

Whoever wins this time will become the first New Yorker in office in 71 years when the inauguration takes place next year.

(And yes, we know Mrs Clinton was born in Chicago, but she was a senator from New York and lives in the state.)

3) Money, money, money

If Mr Trump wins, we could be looking at the least amount of money spent by a winning candidate for some time.

Federal Election Commission records show he spent $91m (£69m) up to 22 July, of which $50m is his own money.

No other candidate since Al Gore in 2000 ($126m) has spent as little. Hillary Clinton is on some $275m so far, by the way.

Of course, Mr Trump could break out the chequebook given that he has more campaigning to do between now and November, but it looks likely he will come a long way under what Barack Obama spent last time round - almost $556m.

4) Experience

Dwight Eisenhower had decent experience - just none in office

A Trump win would be significant for another reason - no-one has been elected president in more than 60 years without experience as a governor or in Congress.

Even then, the last president with no political experience, Dwight Eisenhower, was Supreme Commander of Allied Forces in World War Two, before he was elected to office in 1953.

Before that, Herbert Hoover, who was president from 1929 to 1933, was previously an engineer and humanitarian.

No previous candidate has ever owned a chain of casinos and hotels. But Mr Trump says his experience doing deals, and the fact he is not too tied to the Washington establishment, stand him in good stead.

5) A woman in office?


Sarah Palin was a vice-presidential pick for John McCain in 2008

The long years Hillary Clinton has been on the Washington scene may make it easy to forget one fact: She would be the first female president if elected. She is already the first female candidate for a major US party.

The closest we have got before is when Republican John McCain surprisingly picked Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate in 2008, and when Democrat Walter Mondale named Geraldine Ferraro as his vice-presidential pick in 1984.

Neither won the presidency.

6) Democrat relay?

Amazingly, only two Democrats have directly succeeded another Democrat as US president. The most recent was James Buchanan, who was president from 1857 to 1861.

Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson were both vice-presidents who were named president when their predecessors died. They both then went on to win the next election.

A Clinton win, therefore, would bring even more significance to the Democratic Party.

Road to the White House

The news site Donald Trump doesn't hate

18 August 2016

Video  Three reasons Hillary could lose

29 July 2016

What do candidates learn at intelligence briefings?

18 August 2016

Why is Trump questioning Clinton's health?

19 August 2016

Can Republicans really dump Trump?

12 August 2016

The team shaping Trump's campaign

19 August 2016

How might Trump's screening plan work?

16 August 2016

50 Trump supporters explain why

13 June 2016

US election 2016: Full coverage

8 June 2016

US Election 2016

Soraya Marquez, the state coordinator for Mr Familla Vota and her crew hit a Puerto Rican neighbourhood trying to get Latinos to register to vote




The voters who could decide US election

  • 22 August 2016
  • From the sectionUS Election 2016

Has Donald Trump already blown it?

19 August 2016

From the section US & Canada


Stephen K Bannon

The news site Donald Trump doesn't hate

18 August 2016

From the section US & Canada

When a political party loses a presidential election, it usually has to change — the bigger the loss, the bigger the change. But Republicans could face greater upheaval if Donald Trump wins in November than if he loses.

A Trump victory would redefine the party, transform its credo and presage one of the biggest realignments in U.S. political history.

But a loss — even (or maybe especially) a big one — would simply send the GOP back to the drawing board, as defeat did the Republicans and Democrats in 1964 and 1972, respectively. Four years later, each claimed the White House. Parties are more willing to compromise and experiment “when they get tired of losing,’’ says Whit Ayres, a GOP pollster.

And there’s generally something to salvage from a failed campaign.

“You can take elements of a losing philosophy, tone them down and repackage them,’’ says Joel Kotkin, a political analyst who despises Trump but says he’s “clearly on to something.’’ Anger with establishment elites, political correctness and trade deals that hurt U.S. workers seems likely to endure, no matter Trump’s fate.

That’s not to minimize the turbulence Republicans face, win or lose.

Defeat would only put them back where they were after the 2012 election. Party leaders conducted an “autopsy’’ and agreed on the need to reach out to certain voters — especially Hispanics — and consider immigration reform, while continuing to advocate free markets, small government and muscular internationalism.

Then came a 17-candidate nomination battle that produced Trump, who’s done the opposite of what the autopsy prescribed. Now, says Ayres, “Someone will have to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.’’

USA TODAY

Tale of the tape: The 16 contenders Trump has knocked out

                      The Race To The White House- Hillary or Trump

USA TODAY

Is it Trump or Clinton?

No matter what happens Nov. 8, the party that freed the slaves and preserved the Union, that busted the trusts and won the Cold War, faces a turning point. It could win the election and lose its identity. “A Trump win would hasten the demise of the party as we know it,’’ says William F. B. O'Reilly, a New York Republican consultant.

Or a Trump loss, especially a big one, could call into question the GOP’s ability to elect candidates — a major party’s raison d’etre.

A week before Trump announced his candidacy last June, GOP Chairman Reince Priebus said defeat was not an option: “We don’t exist as a national party if we don’t win in 2016.”

Now the party establishment seems braced for the apocalypse. At a George W. Bush administration reunion in April, the former president told some attendees he was worried he’d be the “last Republican president.’’

Was he serious? Others are. Speaking at the Democratic convention, former Reagan White House aide Doug Elmets, a Trump critic, said, ''What you see is really no longer the Republican Party.'’

Doomsayers are even invoking the fate of the Whigs, a party that elected two presidents but came apart over slavery in the 1850s.

Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Akron, Ohio, on Aug. 22, 2016. (Photo: Gerald Herbert, AP)

A house divided

Trump’s ascendance has both reflected and exacerbated the Republican crisis.

Republicans, so disciplined and so coherent for so long, have become a circular firing squad of libertarians and evangelicals, free traders and protectionists, interventionists and isolationists, Wall Street and small business. The rank and file is alienated from the big donors.

And, as party elders concluded after 2012, demographics are running against the GOP. As Kotkin puts it, “You can’t just be the party of white people’’ — let alone older white people.

There are optimistic precedents for a Republican revival; they start with political disasters.

USA TODAY

Election flashback quizzes: 10 ways to distract yourself from the 2016 race

1964:  Democratic President Lyndon Johnson got 61% of the popular vote, 486 of 538 electoral votes and 44 of 50 states. “Not since the Whigs,’’ Theodore H. White wrote of the GOP, “had any great party seemed so completely to have lost touch with reality.’’

Losing candidate Barry Goldwater was so toxic that three months later he was not welcome at any of Ohio’s eight Lincoln Day dinners.

Goldwater, though a sitting senator and a devout conservative, was the Trump of his day, having told the convention that “extremism in defense of liberty is no vice.’’

But Goldwater saw the future, which was increasingly conservative. Four years later,Richard Nixon dusted off his emphasis on law and order and appeal to Southern whites to win the presidency.

And 12 years after that, Ronald Reagan, who campaigned for Goldwater, won the first of two presidential landslides.

Barry Goldwater addresses a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden in New York on Oct. 27, 1964. (Photo: AFP)

1972: Democratic nominee George McGovern lost 520 of 538 electoral votes and 49 states. Like Goldwater, he was accused of extremism (too liberal); had a disastrous convention (gave his acceptance speech after midnight); and headed a divided party.

But four years later the chastened Democrats nominated a Southern centrist, former Georgia governor Jimmy Carter, who defeated President Gerald Ford.

1988: Sometimes recovery from political disaster takes more than four years.

Democrat Michael Dukakis’ loss to Vice President George H.W. Bush followed even worse blowouts in 1980 and 1984. Over three presidential elections, the Democrats won only 17 states.

Dukakis was governor of liberal Massachusetts. In 1992 the party turned to Bill Clinton, the moderate governor of Arkansas, who won the next two national elections.

Michael Dukakis answers questions during the second presidential debate in Los Angeles on Oct. 13, 1988. (Photo: AP)

What’s next for the GOP?

If Trump wins … his supporters, many new to the party, will be “energized and empowered,’’ says Tobe Berkovitz, who’s advised many political campaigns and teaches at Boston University. “They’ll feel, ‘Despite everything against us, we won!’ ’’

The Grand Old Party will be something new: more nationalistic and populist; less internationalist and ideologically conservative; and reliant on the president’s charisma and instincts.

It will also be what Dan Schnur, director of USC’s Unruh Institute of Politics and communications director for John McCain's 2000 presidential campaign, calls “the first step in the most fundamental realignment in the political system in over a century.’’

If Trump loses … there go many of the voters he attracted. Angry to begin with, they’ll be apoplectic that so many Republicans sat it out or opposed their man.

Will another politician (or politicians) step into Trump’s shoes? An immigration hawk like Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton, who could avoid Trump’s gaffes?

Maybe, but Ayres says if anyone other than Trump said what Trump said, he wouldn’t have gotten anywhere. If so, the future belongs to someone like Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse, a founding Never-Trumper.

USA TODAY

Ben Sasse, the Senate GOP's 'Never Trumper,' irks some voters at home

USA TODAY

Elections 2016 | USA TODAY Network

The party will remain divided over issues, control and blame for Trump’s nomination. Columnist George Will has written of Trump supporters as “quislings’’ and “collaborationists’’ who are “ineligible to participate in the party’s reconstruction.’’

That reconstruction will have to reckon with the legacy of a campaign that soured many voters on the GOP brand.

All of which leads Kotkin to this conclusion: “The Republicans are better off if Trump loses, but not by too much.’’

The worst scenario would be to lose Trump’s enthusiastic supporters and revert to the default national strategy of 2008 and 2012.

Schnur explains the party’s obstinacy by the fact that those defeats, while not close, were not landslides; and they were mediated by midterm election victories.

But if Trump goes down — and certainly if the party loses control of Congress — the lesson finally will be too obvious to overlook.


              

       
      Montage of Insults By Donald Trump to Rosie O'Donnell

Published on Aug 8, 2015 MAKE SURE YOU WATCH THE VIDEO FROM BEGINNING!


           

‘I’m Sick and Tired’ Jeb Blows Up at Trump as GOP Frontrunner Gets Repeatedly Booed at CBS Debate

Published on Feb 13, 2016

Donald Trump picked a fight with Jeb Bush early on in the GOP debate tonight and the Republican frontrunner ended up getting repeatedly booed by the debate audience.

Trump got booed when he first said that Bush is wrong about the Middle East. He dismissed the booing as coming from “Jeb’s special interests and lobbyists” and was repeatedly booed again.

And on top of that, he got yet another big boo when he ridiculed South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham for his poll numbers. This debate is taking place in South Carolina. Trump’s response? “I only tell the truth, lobbyists.”

Bush smacked down Trump as someone who “gets his foreign policy from the shows,” but that didn’t get nearly as heated as minutes later, when moderator John Dickerson asked Trump if he still believes George W. Bush should be impeached.

Trump dodged, and got booed again as he talked about the lack of WMDs in Iraq. Bush proceeded to go off on Trump’s “blood sport” of lobbing insults and cried, “I’m sick and tired of him going after my family!”
Donald Trump picked a fight with Jeb Bush early on in the GOP debate tonight and the Republican frontrunner ended up getting repeatedly booed by the debate audience.

Trump got booed when he first said that Bush is wrong about the Middle East. He dismissed the booing as coming from “Jeb’s special interests and lobbyists” and was repeatedly booed again.

And on top of that, he got yet another big boo when he ridiculed South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham for his poll numbers. This debate is taking place in South Carolina. Trump’s response? “I only tell the truth, lobbyists.”

Bush smacked down Trump as someone who “gets his foreign policy from the shows,” but that didn’t get nearly as heated as minutes later, when moderator John Dickerson asked Trump if he still believes George W. Bush should be impeached.

Trump dodged, and got booed again as he talked about the lack of WMDs in Iraq. Bush proceeded to go off on Trump’s “blood sport” of lobbing insults and cried, “I’m sick and tired of him going after my family!”


                                   

                Sirens Sound In Moscow - Russia On Full alert

Published on Aug 25, 2016

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                            WikiLeaks Julian Assange IT IS TIME

 Published on Aug 23, 2016  Subscribe Channel (http://goo.gl/tK45IY)



                Donald Trump Says To Hillary Clinton: 'You're Tired!'

                                                              QUOTE OF THE DAY “Always stay curious. Curiosity instills creativity.” Aerin Laude

http://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2016/08/24/donald-trump-says-to-hilary-clinton-youre-tired/#9bcd367adf59

Bruce Y. Lee ,   CONTRIBUTOR

I cover the intersection of business, health and public health.

                              

Pictured here are US Presidential Candidates Hillary Clinton (wearing the white jacket, just in case you didn’t know) and Donald Trump. (Photos by Alex Wong/Getty Images and Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)


Mitt Romney Reads Mean Donald Trump Tweets



Donald Trump's Remarks Are Well Prepared


ublished on Aug 2, 2016

After Donald Trump’s recent interview with George Stephanopoulos, many people criticized him, saying he is uninformed and just kind of speaking off the cuff. We actually obtained some of the un-cut footage from that interview and you will see that not only wasn’t Trump speaking extemporaneously, his remarks were actually very well-prepared.

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Now in its thirteenth season, Kimmel's guests have included: Johnny Depp, Meryl Streep, Tom Cruise, Halle Berry, Harrison Ford, Jennifer Aniston, Will Ferrell, Katy Perry, Tom Hanks, Scarlett Johansson, Channing Tatum, George Clooney, Larry David, Charlize Theron, Mark Wahlberg, Kobe Bryant, Steve Carell, Hugh Jackman, Kristen Wiig, Jeff Bridges, Jennifer Garner, Ryan Gosling, Bryan Cranston, Jamie Foxx, Amy Poehler, Ben Affleck, Robert Downey Jr., Jake Gyllenhaal, Oprah, and unfortunately Matt Damon.


Donald Trump's Remarks Are Well Prepared
https://youtu.be/tukYQshSue8

Donald Trump. Businessman, television personality, father, reality TV star (popularizer of the phrase “You’re fired”), author, Republican party nominee for the United States presidential election, and now… psychiatrist? Last week at an event in Youngstown, Ohio, Trump claimed that Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton “lacks the mental and physical stamina to take on ISIS.” Did Trump do a psych evaluation of Clinton? (If so, not sure why Clinton would choose Trump as a psychiatrist or psychologist when she has other choices.) And if so, is there no end to this man’s talents?

When someone tries to smear your reputation, they may resort to claims about your mental health or stamina. Why? Because mental health issues are not like a mole or explosive diarrhea. They are not as easy to either diagnose or refute. Explosive diarrhea is a lot clearer (or more solid, depending on the type of diarrhea you have). “Show me the massive diarrhea” is all you have to say, using your best Tom Cruise impression from the movie Jerry McGuire. But when someone says something about your mental health, how can that be verified?

Certainly, there are obvious cases of mental distress. Someone who keeps repeating the word “matchsticks” constantly every minute, every day, may have something going on, assuming there aren’t matchsticks raining down. But often people throw around mental health diagnoses without even thinking about what they mean. Oh, that person’s crazy. Depressed. Manic. A narcissist. Schizo. Mentally unfit. Blah, blah, blah. Lots of “mental health diagnoses” offered when people want to insult or assess someone else. It is amazing how many board-certified psychiatrists and psychologists are seemingly present, even among junior high and high school students. And here I thought you needed to go to medical or graduate school to be a mental health professional. What’s the accuracy of such diagnoses? Well, considering that they are often used by people who either have no formal training in mental health or have an agenda or both…very, very low.

Here Clinton responds on the Jimmy Kimmel Show to mental stamina claims and opens a jar of pickles (pickles? what does this have to do with anything…you’ll see):

Mental health is one of the most misunderstood areas of medicine and public health. While there is a shortage of mental health professionals in many locations, there seems to be an overabundance of people who think or act like they understand mental health. This Washington Post piece quotes Thomas Insel, director of the National Institute of Mental Health as saying that more than half of U.S. counties have no mental health professionals and so “don’t have any access whatsoever.” As the Wall Street Journal reported, in U.S. between 2005 and 2010, the general population grew 4.7%, but the number of psychiatrists dropped from 38,578 to 38,289. Trump is probably not one of them (unless Trump University offered a fully-accredited medical degree and psychiatry residency programs.)

Remember you can’t diagnose mental health or mental stamina from afar — even if you are a psychiatrist or psychologist. You can’t even diagnose from a-near, if you do not really understand what you are doing or did not conduct a formal exam. A real mental health diagnosis or assessment requires an in-person formal evaluation by a trained professional following the guidelines for mental health diagnoses. The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) is a manual published by the American Psychiatric Association (APA). After the first edition came out, there has been multiple subsequent editions with revisions and additions. each time a new edition is published, it is called DSM followed by the edition number. Thus, the second edition was DSM-2. The third edition DMS-3 and so forth until the DSM-5, published in 2013. The DSM includes the formal diagnostic criteria for a wide range of established mental health issues and conditions. It’s quite an extensive read in case you want to put down yourHarry Potter or Fifty Shades of Gray for a moment. You will see that qualifying for a mental health diagnosis entails meeting a number of specific symptoms and signs.

A key component of diagnosing a mental condition is how long have the symptoms lasted. This is because everyone struggles here and there. Everyone feels down at times. Everyone experiences mental exhaustion occasionally. As REM sang, everybody hurts. There’s a big difference between feeling down for a short bit versus a long, long time.

The second component is whether there is an external cause of the symptoms. If someone kicked your puppy, you would be angry or unhappy. If someone gives you a puppy and you like puppies, but you remain very unhappy for no particular reason then something may be amiss. (Unless the puppy had explosive diarrhea.)

Keep all of this in mind when you hear one candidate, one work colleague or one Mean Girl trying to denigrate another for personal gain. What are the facts supporting the claim? Sure, one candidate may appear tired on certain days. Does this mean a lack of stamina? Not necessarily. Campaigning is tiring, and people get tired — unless they are taking some substance to keep them peppy. Does Clinton have the mental stamina to be President? Does Trump? Who knows?

Trump himself has been the target of mental health speculation. Is Trump a narcissist, as some claim? I don’t know. A diagnosis of narcissism requires meeting particular criteria. With public figures such as Trump, how much of what you see is the real person or just part of a choreographed act? Even if Trump were to show narcissistic tendencies in public, if he doesn’t in the privacy of his own home and with his family and friends, then he’s probably not a true narcissist. Just a very good actor.

Here Jimmy Kimmel asks Dr. Phil if he thinks Trump is a narcissist:

Alas, with so many people throwing around mental health diagnoses without justification, the people who really need help may be overlooked. When evaluating people, why not stick to the facts, the things that can be measured? What has that person accomplished? What specific ideas, policies, plans, abilities and knowledge does a candidate bring to the table? Otherwise, you are left with inaccurate speculation and Mean Girls-like rumor mongering. Who cares if Clinton appeared tired for a moment? Does Trump’s public persona make him a narcissist? Maybe Trump is a warm and gentle guy in his private life. Maybe.

Trump Attacks the Khan Family: A Closer Look


 


Agenda 21, The Plan To Kill You - David Icke


Published on Aug 14, 2016

Agenda 21 The Plan To Kill You - David Icke - The United Nations Depopulation Plan
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Hillary Accepts the Nomination: A Closer Look

 

Published on Jul 29, 2016

Seth takes a closer look at the final night of the Democratic National Convention.
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Hillary Accepts the Nomination: A Closer Look- Late Night with Seth Meyers
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Hillary Accepts the Nomination: A Closer Look

 

 

Trump Accepts the Nomination: A Closer Look

 

Donald Trump's False Claims: A Closer Look - Late Night with Seth Meyers

Who Is Mike Pence? A Closer Look



Lie Witness News - Donald Trump at the Debate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vytuHS8ZnRo

Published on Oct 29, 2015

Hours before the third Republican Presidential debate started, we went out on the street and asked people how they thought Donald Trump did. Even though nothing had happened yet, that didn’t stop people from sharing their thoughts in this special debate edition of #LieWitnessNews.

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Jimmy Kimmel serves as host and executive producer of Emmy-winning "Jimmy Kimmel Live," ABC's late-night talk show.

"Jimmy Kimmel Live" is well known for its huge viral video successes with 2.5 billion views on YouTube alone. Some of Kimmel's most popular comedy bits include - Mean Tweets, Lie Witness News, Jimmy's Twerk Fail Prank, Unnecessary Censorship, YouTube Challenge, The Baby Bachelor, Movie: The Movie, Handsome Men's Club, Jimmy Kimmel Lie Detective and music videos like "I (Wanna) Channing All Over Your Tatum" and a Blurred Lines parody with Robin Thicke, Pharrell, Jimmy and his security guard Guillermo.

Now in its thirteenth season, Kimmel's guests have included: Johnny Depp, Meryl Streep, Tom Cruise, Halle Berry, Harrison Ford, Jennifer Aniston, Will Ferrell, Katy Perry, Tom Hanks, Scarlett Johansson, Channing Tatum, George Clooney, Larry David, Charlize Theron, Mark Wahlberg, Kobe Bryant, Steve Carell, Hugh Jackman, Kristen Wiig, Jeff Bridges, Jennifer Garner, Ryan Gosling, Bryan Cranston, Jamie Foxx, Amy Poehler, Ben Affleck, Robert Downey Jr., Jake Gyllenhaal, Oprah, and unfortunately Matt Damon.



Which Of These People Is Running For President of the USA?




'Hillary, You're Fired' - Donald Trump 


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vZN63KVbAYI
I WAS IN THE ILLUMINATI…NOW I AM TELLING IT ALL: ABOUT OBAMA, SPACE FLIGHTS, DENVER, & ALIENS - 



https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dx3K-jr4q6g
12 MINUTES OF BEST DONALD TRUMP INSULTS




https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EeemF2r60jM
"Hillary, you're Fired!" - Crispy 9/11 clip (funny)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IxKxfiaQW_U

Best Donald Trump Comebacks -







illuminati 2016-2017 | The New World Order - Fall of the Republic 2016 Freedom or Slavery




I WAS IN THE ILLUMINATI…NOW I AM TELLING IT ALL: ABOUT OBAMA, SPACE FLIGHTS, DENVER, & ALIENS ...


                    

                      ANCIENT BLOOD CONSPIRACY


                                

                       
        The real and only truth about this world
                         
                                  Published on Aug 23, 2013 A FaceLikeTheSun productions PODCAST http://canarycryradio.com BLOG http://facelikethesun.com



                          



          illuminati 2016-2017 | The New World Order - Fall of the Republic 2016 Freedom or Slavery

Published on Jul 9, 2016

illuminati 2016-2017 | The New World Order - Fall of the Republic 2016 Freedom or Slavery

FAIR USE : Copyright Disclaimer under section 107 of the copyright act 1976, allowance is made for "fair use" for purposes such as critisicm, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statue that might otherwise be infringing. Non-profit, educational or personal use tips the balance in favor of fair use. DISCLAIMER : This video's purpose is to educate and critic, not to hurt anyone's feelings. the new world order the new world order 2016 the new world order documentary the new world order alien agenda exposed the new world order secret...
 

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              Dr Steven Greer 2016 "It's Happened"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YyEFDQq-P8

Published on Aug 7, 2016  also see gaia.com
http://www.gaia.com/seeking-truth
http://www.gaia.com/seeking-truth/articles

SEEKING TRUTH

To seek the truth is to leave what you know behind and explore new paradigms of thought and theory. Gaia brings you articles on metaphysics, the paranormal, cover-ups, ancient wisdom and modern healing, unveiling a world that redefines what we think we know.

CRYSTAL CARE: CLEARING, CLEANSING & PROGRAMMING YOUR CRYSTALS

WHAT IS THE VALUE OF CONSPIRACY?

SOUL ASCENDERS, BEGIN YOUR EVOLUTION


SOUL ASCENSION: THE EVOLUTION OF SPIRITUAL BEING



Survive The End Days — Survive The End Days



Top 10 Evening Edition

Welcome to the Before It's News Top Trending Stories. Each weekday we deliver the most important and interesting alternative stories to your inbox. Be the first among your friends and colleagues to get the scoop on the stories everyone should be talking about today.



Military Mind Control Shocking Breakthrough: Implanting Neural Dust to Remotely Abuse Targets (video)

Military Mind Control Shocking Breakthrough: Implanting Neural Dust to Remotely Abuse TargetsCONTRIBUTOR: Deborah Dupre. By Deborah Dupré U.S. military contractors have admitted wireless mind control, implanting human brains with neural dust, to remotely “monitor” neurological activity. Targeted Individuals in record numbers are becoming victims of secret human experimentation, mind control, gangstalking, remote neural monitoring. According to Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) contractors, their...

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DHS Prepares For Nuke Attack With Massive Order For Radiation Detectors: ‘To Ensure Nuclear Devices Aren’t Secretly Being Transported In Public Areas’

DHS Prepares For Nuke Attack With Massive Order For Radiation Detectors: ‘To Ensure Nuclear Devices Aren’t Secretly Being Transported In Public Areas’CONTRIBUTOR: Mac. Earlier this year we reported that Texas game wardens on the southern border have been issued radiation detectors due to concerns that a nuclear or radiological device could be smuggled into the United States through the porous Mexican border. It appears that the Department of Homeland Security is also taking...

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New Criminal Revelations About the Clinton Foundation (video)

New Criminal Revelations About the Clinton FoundationCONTRIBUTOR: common sense. As Mark Twain once said, “There are liars, damn liars,” and then there is Hillary Clinton. This video contains a partial list of the multitude of lies told by Clinton about her foundation. New criminal activity is revealed. WARNING: Listening to this video can be damaging to your sense of...

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The US: A Dead Nation Walking. Russia Has Superior Weapons? -Dr. Paul Craig Roberts

The US: A Dead Nation Walking. Russia Has Superior Weapons? -Dr. Paul Craig RobertsCONTRIBUTOR: John Rolls. By Dr. Paul Craig Roberts / GlobalResearch.ca Here is an informative article by Dmitry Orlov:http://www.cluborlov.com. I use the writings of Orlov and The Saker as checks on my own conclusions. In his article Orlov concludes that the United States is a dead nation, still walking, but no longer a...

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Five Dollar Bill Hidden Images Reveal Obama Martial Law (video)

CONTRIBUTOR: TheLightinthedarkplace. U.S. $5 Five Dollar Bill Hidden Images - decoded part 1 of 2. The Lincoln memorial has long been a focal point of Washington DC. What many people seem to overlook is the graven words behind the GIANT Lincoln Memorial statue of President Lincoln declaring the monument as a "Temple."...

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Jim Willie: US has to Go to War for the NWO Elite to Achieve Their Goal! -Video (video)

Jim Willie: US has to Go to War for the NWO Elite to Achieve Their Goal! -VideoCONTRIBUTOR: John Rolls. Published on Aug 26, 2016 A much more calm Dr. Jim Willie talks to Rick Wiles at TruNews about what he sees coming in the next couple of months. It is not easy to listen to, because he is so direct and so knowledgeable and very frightening. Anyone that is...

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NASA Spacecraft Detects Ezekiel's Wheel Huge Ringed Object on Collision Course With Earth! (Video) (video)

NASA Spacecraft Detects Ezekiel's Wheel Huge Ringed Object on Collision Course With Earth! (Video)CONTRIBUTOR: Jeffery Pritchett. A strange object what looks like an “Ezekiel Wheel” passing Saturn has been detected on the Stereo-A Spacecraft on August 22/23, 2016 and it appears to be headed into the inner solar system. In 2011 the Stereo-B Spacecraft captured a tetrahedral shaped anomaly which came from the same region in...

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100% Proof Rio Olympics Ritual was the Birth of the Biblical Antichrist (video)

100% Proof Rio Olympics Ritual was the Birth of the Biblical AntichristCONTRIBUTOR: TheLightinthedarkplace. The Rio 2016 Olympics conducted a huge opening ceremony in which BILLIONS of people gathered to observe. Some key players involved in the torch bearing ritual include: top Pope Francis’s right hand man – Archbishop Cardinal Orani Joao Tempesta and United Nations’ current Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. (Scroll to bottom for...

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War Is Coming, The Whole World Knows It Except The People Of The United States.Wake Up People!

War Is Coming, The Whole World Knows It Except The People Of The United States.Wake Up People!CONTRIBUTOR: Patricia Irons. On the surface, things seem pretty quiet in mid-July 2016. The biggest news stories are about the speculation surrounding Donald Trump’s choice of running mate, the stock market in the U.S. keeps setting new all-time record highs, and the media seems completely obsessed with Taylor Swift’s love life. But underneath...

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Soros Hack: Top 10 Machinations of a Master Manipulator

Soros Hack: Top 10 Machinations of a Master ManipulatorCONTRIBUTOR: The Sleuth ​Journal. The Soros hack has revealed the vast and stunning influence of NWO master manipulator George Soros. The recent Soros hack – the hacking and release of 2500+ emails and documents release by DCLeaks – shows black-and-white proof of the machinations, manipulations and massively long reach of Hungarian-born Jew, multi-billionaire, top...

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SIX EVENTS that could change your life forever

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