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War won't serve Australia's cause

Melbourne Age Newspaper_ Date- August 31, 2013 - Julian Assange
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/war-wont-serve-australias-cause-20130830-2swb2.html
 
The horrors witnessed in Damascus last week are a painful reminder of the abuses that take place when the flow of information is shut down. Both the Assad regime and the anti-Assad forces have made Syria a hostile environment for journalists. As a result there is still no clarity about why this toxic chemical release happened.
Going to war is a very serious business with very serious repercussions, and must not be undertaken until the facts are in. Australia's federal election must not be used as a cover for taking our country into war.
The prospect of regime change in Damascus has long appealed to the US. For the Americans to be able to assert effective influence over Syria would serve US geopolitical interests in at least three ways. It would push back the last extended limb of Russian hard power and cement US victory in its long-term cold-war project to isolate Russian influence globally. It would strengthen Israel's hand by removing one of Hezbollah's main sources of support in Lebanon. And it would complete the encirclement of Iran, whose Shiite Islamist government US hawks have long been looking to overthrow.
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The only thing holding the US back in its goal of regime change in Syria has been the difficulty in identifying a sufficiently strong and ''reliable'' partner in this endeavour. The Syrian opposition is kaleidoscopic. It includes extremist Sunni militant groups such as al-Nusra, which is affiliated to al-Qaeda, and has been reported to be in possession of sarin gas. As this civil war has progressed, it has increasingly become a Sunni-Shiite proxy war, which threatens to embroil the entire Middle East region, with all the major players aligning themselves with one side or another.
Meanwhile, Syria's traditional No. 1 foe Israel is ever at the ready with its own powerful arsenal of missiles.
In 2011, the Obama administration laid down its ''red line'' for intervention - any use of any chemical weapons. There is no doubt that there was a large-scale toxic chemical release in Damascus last week. And there is no denying the horror this has inflicted on innocents. It remains far from clear, however, who used it, and with what motivation. Was this an authorised deployment of chemical weapons by the Syrian government or something else? In whose strategic interest would such an attack be? The Syrian government, which has gained the upper hand in the conflict in recent months, stands to gain nothing by the use of chemical weapons.
Internal documents from the US intelligence contractor Stratfor, which were released by WikiLeaks, reveal that US-led military intervention in Syria has been on the US military agenda since at least December 2011. The document describes how special operations forces were ''already on the ground'' at that time, and were focused on ''training opposition forces''. The document states: ''They [the Pentagon] don't believe air intervention would happen unless there was enough media attention on a massacre, like the Gaddafi move against Benghazi.''
In May 2012, the English-speaking media fell over themselves to attribute the Houla massacre to the Assad government. WikiLeaks cautioned at that time that the reality might be more complex. We were right. The UN commission of inquiry into the massacre was inconclusive. It also showed that there had been significant misreporting in the Western press, and that semi-autonomous militias were likely responsible for many of the deaths.
In an eerie reminder of the lead-up to the disastrous Iraq war, the US government is once again pre-empting the findings of the UN fact-finding mission, declaring that its mind is already made up and that the Assad government is responsible. And the Australian Labor government, personified by the pro-Washington Bob Carr, is dutifully toeing the line, saying a UN mandate is not necessary for legitimate intervention.
But look again. The humanitarian case is weak. Despite the misleading euphemistic rhetoric of the US ''striking across the bow'', it is a dead certainty that missile strikes will kill innocent civilians. It is no less certain that any kind of intervention will intensify the conflict and create even greater refugee flows. More than 1.2 million refugees have already fled the conflict and these migrations are destabilising the whole region.
We must remember the lessons of Iraq - when Australia was led into war by the US/British war machine masquerading its propaganda as ''intelligence''. Then, as now, we were fed on a diet of fear mongering about chemical weapons. And then, as now, the war machine is pre-empting the fact-finding missions of the UN, rendering its job impossible.
What Australian interests are served by going along with a US-led intervention in Syria? The answer is none. The case for intervention has not been made.
Julian Assange is the editor-in-chief of WikiLeaks and a candidate for the Senate.


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/war-wont-serve-australias-cause-20130830-2swb2.html#ixzz2dXq4AfFx#
 
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.@tomforemancnn explores Bashar al-Assad's preparation plans as the U.S. continues to contemplate striking #Syria: http://t.co/C2Si6MgXc0

http://inagist.com/all/373565983807397888/

10 simple points to help you understand the Syria conflict

  • by: ANTHONY SHARWOOD
  • From: news.com.au
  • August 27, 2013 4:31PM
  • 45 comments
  • Chemical attack: Warning graphic images
  • Syria: case for intervention
  • Syrian Electronic Army attacks Western media


Read more: http://www.news.com.au/world-news/simple-points-to-help-you-understand-the-syria-conflict/story-fndir2ev-1226705155146#ixzz2dY3MYIdu


http://www.news.com.au/world-news/simple-points-to-help-you-understand-the-syria-conflict/story-fndir2ev-1226705155146

THIS is a complicated war. This is a messy, cruel war where neither side has much regard for civilian casualties.

This war is not black-and-white. You might think it's the brave rebels versus the evil dictatorial regime, and that's part of the story. But it's not all of it. Not by a long way.

Confused about Syria? Us too. But this quick 10-point explainer will help. To help us navigate this tragic conflict, we spoke to two Australians with a unique view on the troubled nation.

We spoke to Dr Rodger Shanahan, former peacekeeper in Syria and non-resident Fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy.

And we spoke to Father David Smith, a Sydney Anglican priest who this year travelled to Syria on a humanitarian mission. You can read his blog here at prayersforsyria.com.

1. Syria

A country smaller than the state of Victoria with almost the exact same population as Australia (22.5 million to our 23 million) which borders Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Israel and Lebanon. Syria has both deserts and fertile areas and is steeped in history dating back to biblical times.

2. The Syrian regime

Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. AFP PHOTO/SANA

Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. AFP PHOTO/SANA Source: AFP

 

The Syrian Civil war is a conflict between its long-serving government and those seeking to boot it out of office. The Assad family has held power in Syria since 1971. First it was Hafez al-Assad, then Bashar al-Assad.

Unlike many regime leaders in the middle east middle, The Assad family is not religiously extreme. They are Alawites - a relatively obscure branch of Islam which is not particularly hard-line. So the people have not been protesting against hard-line Islamists, as happened in other countries which participated in the Arab Spring uprisings.

But people are still angry at their government. As Rodger Shanahan points out, what they're angry about is the failure of long-promised economic and political reforms.

3. The Civil War begins

Rodger Shanahan says the catalyst was the jailing on March 6, 2011, of some children who painted anti-regime graffiti. Some were killed in detention, and this led to public protests which spread around the country - fuelled by the failure of the government to punish the perpetrators.

Another theory says the war started with demonstrations which mirrored those in neighbouring countries, and which soon led to a security crackdown. In April 2011, the Syrian Army fired on demonstrators and the protests became a full-scale armed rebellion.

Window on the world, Syria style. AFP PHOTO/STR

Window on the world, Syria style. AFP PHOTO/STR Source: AFP

 

4. The rebellion grows…

By July 2011, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) had formed. As Dr Shanahan explains, the FSA never existed before that. "Local areas formed their own militias with the aim of toppling the government without any co-ordination or centralised command or control," he says.

"The militias were a combination of local area tribal groups, deserters from the military [who had been conscripted despite holding anti-government beliefs] and disaffected locals."

Then a combination of Jihadists, some from Syria and some from elsewhere, joined the FSA. Some even came from the faraway Caucasus region - where accused Boston bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev originally hailed from.

So in other words, you had genuine Syrian freedom fighters joined by people with their own Islamist agendas. But because the FSA was underarmed and undermanned, they had little choice but to form a loose coalition with these volatile new kids on the revolutionary block.

5. And pretty soon, bad guys on both sides are killing civilians…

There are good and bad people on both sides. (AP Photo/Shaam News Network, SNN)

There are good and bad people on both sides. (AP Photo/Shaam News Network, SNN) Source: AP

 

As Father Dave Smith says, "the way it's been depicted the last couple of years, you get the impression the rebels are Robin Hood and his band of merry men, and that all they want is freedom and justice for all. But that couldn't be further from the truth."

Father Dave illustrates his point with a communication he had with a Syrian woman which he published on his blog. The woman's name is Ghinwa and she wrote by text:

"The situation is very bad now in Latakia province. 7 Alawite villages were massacred. We know about the killing of 136 villagers all killed on sectarian bases. A friend of mind lost 21 member of his relatives.

"All of my friends who were documenting the name and the events of massacres in Latakia against Alawites are now being threatened to be killed by FSA and Al Nusra terrorists … On TV we are shown something different. It is only a propaganda. They're trying to say that Alawites are not being killed or displaced. The truth is being hidden by mass media. .. This is sick… My sister now is very ill … I guess a part of her illness is caused by sadness … we are afraid."

A quick recap. Alawites are the ethnicity of the ruling family. The fact they were allegedly being killed by rebel groups suggests the rebels are not all angels.

6. Civilian casualties

Her bedroom was ruined, but this woman was one of the lucky ones.

Her bedroom was ruined, but this woman was one of the lucky ones. Source: AP

 

"There are accusations of atrocities on both sides," Rodger Shanahan confirms. We should believe some of them, absolutely. There's no accurate confirmation, but it's a nasty horrible civil war with people on both sides getting killed.

Dr Shanahan says there is evidence that opposition car bombs have killed countless civilians in the name of taking out a government target. But there are equally distressing reports that government soldiers executed civilians. Others, shockingly, were executed for taking a moral stance and failing to follow orders to execute civilians.

Like we said, it's a bloody mess. Literally. The death toll in the war is now said to be well over 100,000.

7. The president's wife

 Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his wife Asma al-Assad. AFP PHOTO / Gerard Cerles

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his wife Asma al-Assad. AFP PHOTO / Gerard Cerles Source: Supplied

 

Allow us to break up this tale with a story of the president's wife. Her name is Asma al-Assad and she was raised in Britain by Syrian parents. She's smart, glamorous and she worked as an investment banker before meeting her future husband in Britain in 2000 - just months before he became president.

In March 2011, the American version of Vogue magazine ran a long, glowing profile of Asma al-Assad. Talk about bad timing. The story was soon removed from Vogue's website and the journalist who wrote it tried to cover her tracks by penning a separate story elsewhere entitled "First Lady of Hell".

Even as the Civil war rages, the Assad family remains popular with many middle class Syrians, especially urbanised Sunni Muslims, says Dr Rodger Shanahan. "They still prefer him to the opposition," he says.

8. Refugee hell

No queue-jumping here. AP Photo/Hadi Mizban

No queue-jumping here. AP Photo/Hadi Mizban Source: AP

 

The United Nations estimates that more than 1.5 million refugees have now fled Syria. Father David Smith visited several camps across the border in Lebanon - a country whose population of 4.3 million is bulging with the influx of a total of nearly 2 million Palestinian and Syrian refugees.

"The camps I saw were deeply impressive," Father Dave says. "Every Palestinian family took in two, maybe three Syrian families. These included polygamous families which presented a whole new problem. The wives often lived in separate houses in Syria but now they were not just under the same roof but sleeping on the same floor. The domestic violence and rape problems are enormous. I was deeply impressed with camp and people running it."

9. Chemical weapons

Just who unleashed the chemical weapons attack which killed hundreds of children and other civilians last week - and why? UN weapons inspectors arrived yesterday with a mandate to find that out. And when they do, it will affect what the world does next.

"They have a mandate to say whether a chemical attack occurred but not to apportion blame," Dr Shanahan cautions. "First, they have to establish whether an incident occurred [it is still disputed by some] and at what level the action was authorised. It is plausible that Assad didn't authorise it but a local commander did."

10. What happens next

The world waits. "You would think the way diplomatic manoeuvrings are going that if there is some kind of military strike it would be quite limited," Dr Shanahan says. "It would be punitive, not designed to tip the military balance."

In other words, no Iraq-style invasion or prolonged Western intervention.

And Father Dave's opinion of what comes next? He doesn't know. But he's praying. He speaks of a man he met in Syria who said he's gone "from unemployment to slavery". That's his way of saying the revolution has so far achieved a whole bunch of nothing except bloodshed and dislocation.

"I see the faces of all those beautiful people and I pray," he says.

Continue the conversation @antsharwood @newscomauHQ @GhinwaMaia @fatherdave



Read more: http://www.news.com.au/world-news/simple-points-to-help-you-understand-the-syria-conflict/story-fndir2ev-1226705155146#ixzz2dY3VxjKk


Syria conflict: as it happened

John Kerry, the US secretary of state, has effectively set out the case for missile strikes on Syria, as he says the US cannot stand idly by as the Assad regime uses chemical weapons. The day's developments as they happened.
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Paul Flynn Paddy Ashdown & other strutting make-believe Napoleons mourn loss of UK World Policeman role that cost UK £50bn & 623 lives in last 10 years
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Syria conflict: latest
John Kerry on Syria 
By Chris Irvine, Bruno Waterfield and Matthew Holehouse
11:55PM BST 30 Aug 2013
 Kerry: history will judge us if we turn a blind eye
• Obama: US consider 'limited, narrow act'

• BBC Panorama films 'napalm' attack
• Francois Hollande: France is ready to act
• Britons told to avoid Lebanon
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10270342/Syria-conflict-as-it-happened.html
 
 


By Chris Irvine, Bruno Waterfield and Matthew Holehouse
11:55PM BST 30 Aug 2013
Comments2837 Comments
• Kerry: history will judge us if we turn a blind eye
• Obama: US consider 'limited, narrow act'
• BBC Panorama films 'napalm' attack
• Francois Hollande: France is ready to act
• Britons told to avoid Lebanon

Latest

00.00 We are going to wrap up today's live blog for now. For all the developments in Syria, check the Telegraph's world news page.
23.55 Here are all of tomorrow's newspaper front pages, with Syria dominating.
23.50 In tomorrow's paper our US team Peter Foster, Jon Swaine and Raf Sanchez report that the US is planning an attack on Syria with the help of France.
23.30 Here is our wrap of the story of the day: John Kerry says the world must act after Assad's gas attack.

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    30 Aug 2013
23.00 UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has told the five permanent Security Council members that it may be two weeks before for final results are ready of an analysis of samples experts collected at the site of a chemical weapons attack last week in Syria are ready.
22.45 Here's more from the Syrian foreign ministry statement: “What the US administration describes as irrefutable evidence... is nothing but tired legends that the terrorists have been circulating for more than a week, with their share of lies and entirely fabricated stories."
22.40 The White House has released details of the most recent phone call between Mr Obama and Mr Cameron:
The President spoke with Prime Minister Cameron today as part of their continuing consultations on the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons on August 21, which they agree is unacceptable and cannot be tolerated. As always, the United States values the special relationship with the United Kingdom, a close ally and friend. The President and Prime Minister agreed to continue to consult closely on Syria and the broad range of security challenges that our two countries face together.
22.30 Foreign Secretary William Hague tweets:
Twitter Spoke to Secretary Kerry. He thanked me for the UK's steadfast friendship. United on ending #Syria conflict and use of chemical weapons.
22.20 Now some reaction from Syria: the foreign ministry has said that accusations by US Secretary of State John Kerry that it has used chemical weapons were "lies and baseless."
The ministry said in a statement that Mr Kerry's claims were a "desperate attempt" to justify a military strike against Syria.
22.14 The French presidency has put out a new statement saying Francois Hollande and Barack Obama want to send the Syrian regime a "strong message" to condemn the alleged use of chemical weapons.
"Both heads of state agreed that the international community cannot tolerate the use of chemical weapons, that it should hold the Syrian regime accountable for it and send a strong message," the statement said.
21.53 The Sun has declared the death of the "special relationship" on its front page. Funeral to be held in France.
21.40 The Washington Post's London correspondent, Anthony Faiola, has asked how the "Churchillian spirit of a nation suddenly turned into a Chamberlain moment, appeasing a tyrant".
20.55 David Cameron says he has spoken to Barack Obama and that the two leaders had agreed that US-UK cooperation will continue, despite Britain's decision not to support military intervention in Syria.
Mr Cameron said that the US President emphasised his appreciation of the strong friendship between the two leaders and the "strength, durability and depth of the special relationship between our two countries".
"They agreed that their co-operation on international issues would continue in the future and both reiterated their determination to find a political solution to the Syrian conflict by bringing all sides together," a spokesman for Mr Cameron said in a statement.
That doesn't quite take the sting out of John Kerry's snub, though.
20.40 Tayyip Erdogan, the Prime Minister of Turkey, says any intervention in Syria should be aimed at ending Assad's rule. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Syria's rattled northern neighbour wants the US to go further in its use of force than envisaged by Washington, which has said that strikes would not be aimed at regime change but at deterring further use of chemical weapons.
20.18 In case you missed Obama's statement, watch it here on Telegraph TV:
19.38 The US has also released a map accompanying their intelligence assessment.
19.35 In brief remarks at the White House Barack Obama said Assad's use of chemical weapons threatened US interests and endangered its allies such as Israel and Jordan.
Claiming still to have made no final decision on whether to intervene, Mr Obama said he was considering a "limited narrow, act" and would continue consulting with Congress.
"This kind of offence is a challenge to the world," Mr Obama said.
He adds that the attacks threaten US national security.
19.10 If you missed John Kerry's statement, and fancy watching it, here are the best bits, captured by Telegraph TV.
18.51 Barack Obama is reportedly preparing to speak at 2.15pm EDT - or 7.15pm BST, according to ABC News.
18.28 If there was any doubt to how America feels about the Parliamentary vote in Britain last night, then John Kerry's words, or rather lack of them, say it all. Peter Foster says:
The extent of the damage to that relationship was most obvious by the glaring omission of Britain when John Kerry listed the countries prepared to act against Assad. France, by contrast, was referred to as "our oldest ally". Even by the standards of diplomatic code, it was a crushing omission.
18.26 On preparation for the attack, the US intelligence report says that chemical weapons personnel were in the Damascus suburb of Adra from August 18 until August 21.
On August 21, a Syrian regime element prepared for a chemical weapons attack in the Damascus area, including through the utilization of gas masks. Our intelligence sources in the Damascus area did not detect any indications in the days prior to the attack that opposition affiliates were planning to use chemical weapons.
18.24 Some takeaways from the US intelligence report, some oints of which were made by John Kerry.
A preliminary US government assessment determined that1,429 people were killed in the chemical weapons attack, including at least 426 children, though this assessment will certainly evolve as we obtain more information.
We assess with high confidence that the confidence that the Syrian government carried out the chemical weapons attack against opposition elements in the Damascus suburbs on August 21...
We assess that the scenario in which the opposition executed the attack on August 21 is highly unlikely.
18.17 John Kerry has wrapped up where he concludes by saying:
18.05 He says that Assad troops were told in advance of an attack and told to prepare.
He says they saw "rows of dead" lined up.
"We saw rows of children lying side by side, sprawled on a hospital floor, all of them dead from Assad's gas, and surrounded by parents and grandparents that suffered the same fate."
He says he knows at least 1,429 were killed in the attack, including 426 children.
Even the first responders, he says, became victims themselves. "We saw them gasping for air, terrified for their own lives".
"We also know many disturbing details about the aftermath. We know that a senior regime official that knew about the attack confirmed that chemical weapons were used by the regime, reviewed the impact and was afraid they would be discovered.
He says he personally contacted the Syrian foreign minister and said if they have nothing to hide, they should let the UN in immediately. Instead, for four days they shelled the neighbourhood in order to destroy the evidence.
"When the UN inspectors finally gained access, that access was restricted and controlled."
The American intelligence community has "high confidence... this is common sense.. this is evidence. These are facts".
The question, he asks is what "we collectively are going to do about it."
18.00 Kerry says the findings are as "clear as they are compelling". He tells people to read for themselves - evidence they have gathered from "thousands of sources".
He says they have reviewed and rereviewed information regarding the attack, and says they have done so with Iraq in mind. "We will not repeat that moment", he declares.
17.57 John Kerry is finally up.
17.55 British Typhoon fighters will stay in Cyprus despite David Cameron's decision not to join attacks on Syria, because military chiefs believe retaliation against UK bases remains a possibility, according to Ben Farmer, the Telegraph's Defence correspondent.
An RAF source said:
We have no plans to move them. The thinking is we may have said we are not doing anything, but we can't speak for our international partners. Cyprus is where it is and it makes sense to keep them there.
17.44 We are still waiting for John Kerry. The UN meanwhile has said the chemical experts in Syria have completed collecting their samples, but all analysis must be completed before conclusions are drawn.
17.33 More on UN weapons inspectors leaving, it is being widely reported that UN disarmament envoy Angela Kane has left Damascus and is on her way to Istanbul.
17.31 David Blair, meanwhile, has spoken to Telegraph TV via Skype about what action the US might take next on Syria.
17.28 John Kerry, the US secretary of state, is minutes from delivering a statement on Syria.
17.23 Jack Straw, the former Labour Foreign Secretary, has dismissed Lord Ashdown's comments on Syria. Lord Ashdown said he was "ashamed" of what happened in Parliament last night. In an article for the Guardian though, Mr Straw says:
On the six occasions since I entered the Commons in 1979 when it has been asked to endorse UK involvement in military action, there's been an overwhelming, bipartisan majority. What was different last night was not that MPs had suddenly decided pacifism was the answer, that we should retreat from a dangerous world; nor even that the consequences of Iraq had paralysed the capacity of parliamentarians to make decisions.
What was different was, to quote Fraser Nelson, editor of the Spectator, that "Mr Cameron lost due to the simple weakness of his case ... [H]e had no answer... Normally those advocating action offer a plan – of sorts. In Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya the plan was to replace a dictatorship with a democracy – and while you could disagree passionately, you could see what they had in mind. Not this time".
17.00 The BBC are reporting that UN inspectors have now left Syria.
16.50 The chemical weapons attack in Syria demands an international response but Nato will not take part, Anders Fogh Rasmussen the Alliance's secretary general has told Denmark's Politiken newspaper
I see no Nato role in an international reaction to the regime.
16.30 MPs feared they'd create another Iraq disaster. Their actions may give them another Rwanda, argues David Skelton of the Conservative campaign group Renewal.
Many point to the ghost of the Iraq War in order to explain the result. They’re reaching for the wrong analogy. As the Prime Minister pointed out yesterday, the debate was not about use of ground troops, but about making clear that the use of chemical weapons and vile atrocities committed by Assad are entirely unacceptable and should be met with a strong response.
Instead of the spectre of Iraq, hanging over the debate should have been the ghost of our non-intervention in Rwanda and Bosnia.
16.20 The Syrian military is preparing for an imminent attack on the country, moving soldiers and weapons supplies into schools and other public buildings, eyewitnesses tell the Telegraph’s Ruth Sherlock reports in Beirut.
As expectations increase of a US strike at the weekend, the Syrian government is moving weaponry and troops out of the country's military installations, and into urban areas where any attack would cause mass civilian casualties.
"I watched as the military buses moved troops from a security building to a schools," one Syrian businessman from Damascus told the Telegraph, refusing to give his name. "There are tanks and soldiers all over Mezze district of Damascus."
Several other residents of Damascus told the Telegraph, speaking by Skype, that they had witnessed large 'troop movements' around the city. Two local journalists said they had seen 'large military trucks' going into a school in Mezze district.
Whilst troops and weaponry is being moved, prisoners have been left in the military installations that the regime believes could be targets of the strikes, local activists said. They accused the regime of using the detainees as 'human shields', to deter the US from attacking the areas.
"There are several thousand prisoners in a detention centre in Mezze military airport. The regime has removed the troops and the weapons from the base, but has left them there." said an activist in Damascus calling herself Alexia Jade. "Then they move the troops to live among civilians. One way or another they are using all of us as human shields".
16.00 The Washington Post reports that there are "serious reservations" in the overstretched US military over President Obama's plans for a military strike against Syria.
Lt. Gen. Gregory S. Newbold, who served as director of operations for the US joint chiefs of staff during the run-up to the Iraq war, tells the newspaper that many senior American officers share his fears
There’s a broad naivete in the political class about America’s obligations in foreign policy issues, and scary simplicity about the effects that employing American military power can achieve.
15.45 President Obama is holding taks with America's National Security Council.
The meeting is chaired by the president and attended by the vice-president, secretaries of state and defence, the national security adviser along with chairman of the joint chiefs of staff and the director of national intelligence.
15.30 The Telegraph’s Tim Stanley has interviewed John Bolton, former US ambassador to UN who tells him that the Commons vote “won't be much of an impact [on the special relationship] much more a devastating defeat for David Cameron domestically”.
Fairly astonishing that the Coalition would go ahead with a vote on something this critical… that they would allow it to happen.
If the President had been doing his job it would have been easier for Prime Minister Cameron to do his job.
Syria crisis another example of the US leading from behind
15.15 John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, is expected to make a statement on Syria in Washington at 12:30 local time (17:30 BST). The US is due to release a declassified dossier on the Syrian chemical weapons attacks that will claim intercepted communications between "high-level" Syrian officials prove there is "no doubt" that the Assad regime was responsible.
14.58 Nearly 80 per cent of Americans believe that Obama should get congressional approval before using force in Syria, according to a new poll conducted by NBC news. Half think that the US should not intervene in the wake of the attacks.
14.52 Turkey's foreign minister has said intelligence has left no doubt that Assad were responsible for the chemical weapons attack.
14.49 Barack Obama's predecessors have weighed in to offer their views on the pending military action.
George W Bush, who of course dragged America into two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, has told Fox News that Mr Obama has a "tough choice to make", but:
If he decides to use our military, he'll have the greatest military ever backing him up.
He also says he is "not a fan" of Assad. "He's an ally of Iran, he's made mischief", he adds.
Jimmy Carter, the former Democrat president, meanwhile said unilateral action would be a mistake.
A punitive military response without a UN Security Council mandate or broad support from NATO and the Arab League would be illegal under international law and unlikely to alter the course of the war...
All should seek to leverage the consensus among the entire international community, including Russia and Iran, condemning the use of chemical weapons in Syria and bringing under UN oversight the country's stockpile of such weapons.
It will only harden existing positions and postpone a sorely needed political process to put an end to the catastrophic violence.
Barack Obama with the living former Presidents earlier this year, from left to right, George W Bush, Bill Clinton, George HW Bush and Jimmy Carter
14.30 So with Britain out of the picture, the US is once again at the spearhead of a possible lightning strike. But what does the US have in the region?
Five US destroyers carrying hundreds of cruise missiles between them are believed to be readying launches against Syrian munitions depots and command and control hubs.
The USS Stout has been deployed to join sister ships Mahan, Ramage, Barry and Gravely, a US defence official said on Thursday.
The flagship of the US Sixth Fleet, the USS Mount Whitney, is based in Gaeta, Italy.
US forces are also stationed at air bases in Izmir and Incirlik, Turkey, and long-range bombers could eventually be sent from bases in North America.
Ships attached to the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit are now in port in the United Arab Emirates, and two aircraft carrier battle groups built around the USS Truman and USS Nimitz are cruising in the northern Indian Ocean.
The only European nation prepared to intervene at this point is France, which has ships and aircraft standing by.
French aircraft can be equipped with Scalp missiles that could reach targets in Syria.
In Djibouti, France has positioned seven Mirage 2000 combat jets and six Rafales are stationed in Abu Dhabi.
Naval assets include frigates, submarines and the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, which is based in Toulon, southern France.
Meanwhile, one of Syria's neighbours is Turkey, which has the second biggest NATO ground force after the United States and could play a major role if an intervention extended beyond limited air strikes.
The Turkish army has a total of 510,000 troops and the air force has 354 combat aircraft, essentially US-built F-16s.
Patriot anti-missile batteries have also been positioned in southern Turkey and are manned by troops from the United States, Germany and the Netherlands under a NATO mandate to protect the country from any spillover of the fighting in Syria.
14.19 Labour sources have told the Guardian that when David Cameron found out that Labour would not back the Syria motion, the prime minister told Ed Miliband that "you are letting down America".
Cameron earlier today said that he did not think he would have to apologise to Barack Obama.
14.00 Vladimir Putin currently has no plans for a one-to-one meeting with President Barack Obama at the G20 summit in Russia next week but will greet him and “shake his hand”.
Yury Ushakov, President Putin’s foreign policy adviser, noted “we and the Americans planned a full-scale state visit (by Obama) to Moscow, which, as you know, is not happening”.
That meeting was cancelled earlier this month by the US president after Mr Putin offered asylum to Edward Snowden, the US intelligence defector.
The G20 meeting in St Petersburg next Thursday and Friday will be pretty frosty amid the Syria crisis and in the possible aftermath of US military strikes.
Putin will naturally greet Obama among other leaders, shake his hand and then we will see.
A meeting with Obama is not planned. Whether it will be standing up or in chairs, I do not know.
13.55 Bernard Jenkin, chairman of the Public Administration Select Committee, is in favour of intervention in Syria but told the Telegraph that David Cameron failed to make his case properly. The SIGINT he refers to are the telephone intercepts that the US is expected to release later today.
It is entirely understandable that the House of Commons voted as it did last night.
There was not sufficient preparation of expectations in the Conservative Party for a recall. The case was not well presented.
I got far more intelligence about why Assad was culpable from a friendly journalist than ministers for the JIC assessments.
We know that there is some command SIGINT which has been reported in the newspapers to which the government did not refer. What was this signals intelligence? This really underlines the limitations of trying to inform the HoC of making a decision of this kind on a limited intelligence briefing.
I do not think the legal basis was properly explained. The Attorney General should have made a statement to the House of Commons and cross-examined, so there was no doubt where the Government's legal case lay. Against the background of the legacy of Iraq, it is not suprising the House voted so strongly to reflect public opinion."
Obama's policy was an almost impossible sell - we are going to drop bombs on Syria but we are not going to get involved in the conflict. It is disastrously incoherent.
13.50 A bit later today we're expecting the US to release a declassified dossier on the Syrian chemical weapons attacks that will claim intercepted communications between "high-level" Syrian officials prove there is "no doubt" that the Assad regime was responsible.
13.40 Al Arabiya is reporting that the Syrian regime is moving government offices to schools and universities to seek safe haven in the event of a military attack.
President Bashar al-Assad’s armed forces have also moved their scud missiles and launchers from a military base in northern to Damascus to unidentified regions, said opposition sources.
13.30 Last night’s debate revealed how little faith politicians have in Britain’s intelligence services. Ten years after Iraq, MPs simply do not trust our spies, blogs Matthew Holehouse.
13.25 Senior Russia foreign policy officials are suggesting that the US will launch three days of air strikes against Syria this weekend regardless of Britain’s rejection of military action, the Telegraph's Roland Oliphant reports from Moscow.
Alexei Pushkov, the chairman of the Russian Duma’s International Affairs Committee, said that he believed America still has enough allies, in the form of France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and some members of the Arab League, to support strikes.
He also insisted that an alleged US demand for UN inspectors to return from Syria by Saturday indicated Washington intended to go ahead with strikes as planned.
The refusal of the British parliament to support David Cameron’s burning desire to become the next Tony Blair is quite a serious blow to the anti-Syrian coalition, and a painful blow to the United States
We also know that Obama is inclined to get strikes out of the way before he leaves for the G20 summit in St. Petersburg [on Sep 5-6]
We’ve heard talk: the military operation will last three days. In this case the Obama administration is sticking to the timetable it set itself.
13.15 David Horovitz, founding editor of The Times of Israel, is not pulling his punches in a comment article headlined, “Perfidious Albion hands murderous Assad a spectacular victory”.
As a consequence of Cameron’s absolutely staggering defeat in the House of Commons on Thursday night, an already hesitant US administration — which has been wobbling for days about how to make plain to Assad that he can’t massacre his people with weapons of mass destruction, but to do so without embroiling the US in another muddy, bloody, unwinnable Middle East conflict — has lost its key ally in the unenviable, vital task of reining in the murderous tendencies of global, and especially Middle Eastern, despots.
In Syria, Assad must be delightedly flabbergasted.
Syrians search under rubble in Idlib to rescue people from houses that were destroyed by a Syrian government warplane (AP)
13.05 Paul Flynn, the Labour MP for Newport West, is unimpressed with Lord Ashdown's argument.
 
13.00 Paddy Ashdown, the former leader of the Liberal Democrats said he is “ashamed” of Britain’s decision not to take action following the chemical weapons attack in Syria which saw hundreds killed and thousands more injured.
12.45 Is it or isn’t it? There is Facebook post out there purporting to be written by Hafez al-Assad, the 11-year-old son of the Syrian president.
As the New York Times notes “it is impossible to confirm whether the Facebook account does, in fact, belong to the son” but it is “liked or commented on by several people who appear to be the children and grandchildren of other senior members of Mr. Assad’s government”.
So it is either “a glimpse into the defiant worldview of the Syrian elite” – or it ain’t.
Here is an extract of the post.
12 hours we waited… 48 hours they said, we're waiting… I just want them to attack sooo much, because I want them to make this huge mistake of beginning something that they don't know the end of it, just like Hezbollah defeated Israel and the Nato and by what? What did Hezbollah have back then? Some street fighters and some small rockets and a pile of guns, but they had belief, In theirselves and in their country and that's exactly what's gonna happen to America if it chooses invasion because they don't know our land like we do, no one does, victory is ours in the end no matter how much time it takes
Syria forever and everr
12.35 AFP reports that te head of the Western-backed Syrian opposition says the British parliament's failure to endorse military action in Syria isn't enough to hold back strikes by other allies.
Ahmad al-Jarba said on France-Inter radio on Friday that he wasn't surprised by the vote that effectively removes Britain from a coalition of Western allies looking to punish Bashar Assad with military strikes for his regime's alleged responsibility in an apparent chemical attack.
Al-Jarba said that strikes contemplated by the United States, France, and, originally, Britain are a moral responsibility that can level the playing field militarily.
He said that "strikes can paralyze a large part of the regime and raise morale" within the opposition.
As for Britain's vote, he said it wouldn't stop allies of the Syrian people "from ending injustice."
12.25 Peter Dominiczak, Telegraph Political Correspondent has more on what Mr Cameron was saying.
Asked whether he felt that Mr Miliband had been “dishonourable” Mr Cameron said:
It’s a matter for him to defend the way he behaved and his conduct. Look, my only regret is that it wasn’t possible to build a consensus of all parties. I worked hard to try to do that by making clear how we would go to the UN, listen to the inspectors, hold a second vote. But in the end Opposition leaders have to make choices just as Prime Ministers make choices. I made my choice about how to handle this issue doing the right thing in the right way, learning the lessons of the past but I regret it wasn’t possible to have that consensus in the House. The real issue is the House of Commons spoke and the Government will listen.
He also said that Justine Greening, the International Development Secretary, and Mark Simmonds, a foreign office minister, had apologised to him for failing to vote because they did not hear the division bell sounding in Parliament. He said the Whips “did do a good job” despite not convincing so many backbenchers to back the Government.
As for the two ministers who missed the vote this was a technical issue. They had made it for the first vote. They were in a room in the House of Commons where they didn’t hear the division bell, they missed the vote. They’ve apologised profoundly. I’ve accepted that apology but it wouldn’t have changed the result.
David Cameron was forced to abandon plans for Britain to participate in military strikes against Syria after suffering an unprecedented Parliamentary defeat (PA/Reuters)
12.15 Jeevan Vasagar, the Telegraph’s man in Berlin reports that Germany has no plans to participate in a military strike against Syria.
In an interview with the "Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung”, to be published tomorrow, Guido Westerwelle the German foreign minister, said Germany’s participation has “neither been sought nor are we considering it.”
Following a ruling by its constitutional court, Germany can only deploy its armed forces in operations – including overseas deployments - that are under the scope of Nato or the UN, and with the explicit consent of the Bundestag.
“We urge the United Nations Security Council to find a common stance,” he said, calling for the work of UN inspectors to be completed as quickly as possible.
Government spokesman Steffen Seibert told reporters in Berlin on Friday that "we haven't considered any German military participation and still aren't doing so."
12.00 There's more from the Prime Minister on the Commons defeat last night.
I was faced with three things I wanted to do right and do in the right way.
First of all, to condemn absolutely and respond properly to an appalling war crime that took place in Syria.
Secondly, to work with our strongest and most important ally who had made a request for British help.
Thirdly, to act as a democrat, to act in a different way to previous prime ministers and properly consult Parliament.
I wanted to do all those three things. Obviously politics is difficult - that involved going to Parliament, making an argument in a strong and principled way but then listening to Parliament.
I think the American public, the American people and President Obama will understand.
i haven't spoken to him since the debate and the vote but I would expect to speak to him over the next day or so. I don't think it's a question of having to apologise.
11.50 David Cameron, the Prime Minister, has been speaking in Downing Street about the aftermath of the Commons vote.
I think it's important we have a robust response to the use of chemical weapons and there are a series of things we will continue to do.
We will continue to take a case to the United Nations, we will continue to work in all the organisations we are members of - whether the EU, or Nato, or the G8 or the G20 - to condemn what's happened in Syria.
It's important we uphold the international taboo on the use of chemical weapons.
But one thing that was proposed, the potential - only after another vote - involvement of the British military in any action, that won't be happening.
That won't be happening because the British Parliament, reflecting the great scepticism of the British people about any involvement in the Middle East, and I understand that, that part of it won't be going ahead.
11.45 More from Roland Oliphant in Moscow where a Russian military official, the former commander of Russia's air defence forces, is quoted by Interfax saying Syria has about 1000 missile units able to respond to Western air strikes.
Syrian air defences are capable of an adequate response to strikes by the United States and its allies in the anti-Syrian coalition in the even of war. Damascus today has about a thousand units of anti-aircraft rocket systems, and more than 5000 anti aircraft artillery systems of various types.
The official did not rule out the possibility that Syria's arsenal already includes S-300 missiles, which could pose a serious threat to a western air campaign.
If Russia did not deliver them, Belarus or China could have done it without publicity in 2010 or 2011.
11.28 Back to the reality of the cvil war in Syria. Footage has emerged which reportedly shows the aftermath of an incendiary bomb being dropped on a school playground in northern Syria, leaving children with napalm-like burns over their bodies.
(Youtube)
11.20 Russia has welcomed the British parliament's rejection of military action against the Syrian regime.
Yury Ushakov, President Vladimir Putin's chief foreign policy aide, has been briefing the press.
This reflects the opinion of the majority of British and Europeans. It seems to me that people are starting to understand how dangerous such scenarios are.
Russia is working actively to avoid the use of force in Syria,” Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters.
I would not like us to find ourselves in a situation where one country or a group of countries take it upon themselves to pass judgement and impose their own sentence
Roland Oliphant reports form Moscow for the Telegraph.
It is generally accepted here that Russia's UN Security Council veto would mean nothing in the face of consolidated western support for intervention, so the British vote is in an unexpected victory for Russia's position.
11.00 Matthew Holehouse reports on the scale of the rebellion by Tory MPs. Thirty voted against the Government. Another 33 failed to show up. Guido has the full list.
Among the no shows were some rising stars: Adam Afriyie, Priti Patel, David Gauke at the Treasury, Charlotte Leslie, Jesse Norman from the PM's policy unit, and Rory Stewart - who worked in Iraq and is highly knowledgeable about the Middle East and who would have been expected to contribute last night. And most striking of all - Justine Greening, the Development Secretary, and her deputy Alan Duncan. Greening has a seat on the National Security Council which called for military action in the first instance. There's a reshuffle around the corner.
So it amounts to a crisis of discipline in the Tory party - these are not the usual suspects who have been sore about the Coalition, have little prospects of promotion and giving Cameron a hard time as a result. Was it that they simply couldn't tear themselves from their sunloungers for a vote they assumed the Government was going to win?
10.45 The New York Daily News is shocked by the Commons vote. Britain is now in the German camp and the French, once decried as "surrender monkeys" over Iraq are stepping up to the plate.
President Obama's attempts to form a coalition of nations willing to attack Syria appear to be splintering.
The biggest blow was dealt by the normally reliable Brits, whose Parliament stunned Obama on Thursday by voting down Prime Minister David Cameron’s proposal to join the attack on Bashar Assad’s government.
With Germany already saying no, the President was left with France, whose president, Francois Hollande, said its troops “have been put in a position to respond."
President Hollande flies the flag (Reuters)
10.30 Asked by Le Monde about the Commons vote on Syria strike, President Hollande said he would be stepping into the breach.
Each country is sovereign to participate or not in the operation. This applies to the United Kingdom and for France. I will today have an in-depth exchange with Barack Obama.
If the Security Council is unable to act , a coalition will form. It should be as broad as possible. It will rely on the Arab League. It will have the support of the Europeans. But there are only a few countries that have the capacity to impose a sanction by the appropriate means. France is one. She is ready. She will decide her position closely with her allies.
10.20 The French president has told Le Monde today that military strikes by the US and France could begin on Wednesday – without Britain. Bonjour à la relation spéciale.
Francois Hollande tells the newspaper that he will to go ahead with plans to strike Syria despite the vote blocking military action in the British parliament.
The chemical massacre of Damascus cannot and must not remain unpunished.
10.10 Reuters is also reporting on Mr Obama’s troubles with Congress and the “patchy relationship” Susan Rice, his national security adviser has with American legislators.
She was pilloried by opposition Republicans for saying that a September 2012 attack on a US diplomatic post in Benghazi, Libya, was the work of a spontaneous crowd rather than Islamist militants. Critics charged it was part of an attempt to protect Obama during his re-election campaign, which the White House vigorously disputed.
10.05 The White House's push to win Congressional support for a military strike on Syria is meeting resistance because of bitterness over President Obama’s to bypass Capitol Hill when the US intervened in Libya two years ago.
The Cable blog reports on the uphill struggle.
With the prospect of an imminent US military intervention into Syria looming, 140 members of Congress, including 21 Democrats, signed onto a letter demanding that the White House seek formal Congressional approval before using force there. Failing to do so, they say, would be unconstitutional.
10.00 The British vote against military action could prove contagious and give President Obama problems in the Republican US Congress.
Representative Howard (Buck) McKeon, Republican chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said Mr Obama needed to convince both Congress and a “war weary” country.
If he doesn’t, I think he could have a real problem with the Congress and the American public. He’s got a big sell. It’s a very tough situation with no good options.
More US reaction to the Commons vote here
09.50 David Blair, the Telegraph's Chief Foreign Correspondent, reports from Lebanon on the latest sign that military strikes against Syria are imminent.
Here in Beirut, the Foreign Office has issued a travel warning telling Britons to stay out of Lebanon except on "essential business". The border with Syria is off-limits entirely. This is another sign that US military action against Syria is probably imminent. The Foreign Office fears a possible backlash against Westerners in Lebanon. One point might be worth highlighting: the fact that Britain will not join any strike on Syria has evidently not reduced the possible threat to British citizens. If anyone thought we might be safer if we stayed out of US campaigns in the Middle East; well, today's travel warning suggests you should think again.
09.40 The bookies at William Hill have cut the odds for David Cameron no longer being leader of the Conservative Party when the next general election takes place.
Odds are from 5/1 to 3/1 following the Government’s defeat in parliament over military action in Syria last night.
09.35 George Osborne, the Chancellor, has said that there needs to be "national soul-searching" over Britain's role in the world following the Commons defeat.
I think there will be a national soul-searching about our role in the world and whether Britain wants to play a big part in upholding the international system, be that big, open and trading nation that I like us to be, or whether we turn our back on that.
I understand the deep scepticism that many of my colleagues in Parliament, many members of the public, have about British military involvement in Syria. I hope this doesn't become a moment where we turn our back on all of the world's problems.
09.32 The head of the Syrian opposition says that Parliament's failure to endorse military action in Syria will not be enough to hold back strikes by other allies.
Ahmad al-Jarba said on France-Inter radio said that strikes contemplated by the United States, France, and, originally, Britain are a moral responsibility that can level the playing field militarily.
"This won't (stop) Syria's allies from ending injustice," he said, regarding Britain's vote.
09.30 Dozens of Conservative MPs openly defied Mr Cameron to criticise his plans for military action, siding with Ed Miliband.
In a bid to quell the growing rebellion, writes The Telegraph's Peter Dominiczak, Mr Cameron had at lunchtime attempted to persuade his MPs to back him by holding a meeting with backbenchers in Parliament.
Sources close to the Prime Minister claimed that MPs left the meeting satisfied and were prepared to support the Government.
However, as MPs debated the Government motion in the Commons it became clear that a large number of backbenchers were preparing to flout Mr Cameron’s authority.
This morning's Telegraph View says that the Government defeat leaves British policy on Syria and Mr Cameron's own leadership mired in the deepest uncertainty.
The Iraq war scarred the reputation of one prime minister – and now it has poisoned the authority of another. Make no mistake. David Cameron was not defeated yesterday by Ed Miliband: not only did Labour’s amendment go down, but their respective performances made it clearer than ever that the incumbent is palpably better suited to his station than the pretender. Rather, Mr Cameron confronted the legacy of Iraq head-on, attempting to persuade the country, as he said in his peroration, that “we must not let the spectre of previous mistakes paralyse our ability to stand up for what is right”. For good or ill, he failed.
09.25 The morning after the night before. David Cameron may be waking up with a massive political and diplomatic headache, and Barack Obama's "coalition of the willing" has suffered a huge blow.
Mr Cameron has been forced to drop plans for Britain to participate in military strikes against Syria following a humiliating Parliamentary defeat of only 13 votes. Britain's summary of intelligence was not enough to convince 285 MPs it seems.
After it is all said and done, Mr Obama is facing the prospect of effectively going it alone.
Chuck Hagel, the US Secretary of Defence, says America would respect the British decision, but press on with building an alliance against Bashar al-Assad's regime. Likewise, the State Department says that the US "make[s] our own decisions and our own timeline".
Demonstrators gather for a rally against a possible US attack on Syria in front of the White House in Washington
09.20 BST London, 11.20 EEST Damascus, 04.20 EDT Washington Good morning and welcome to our live rolling coverage of the Syria conflict.
Syria conflict and Commons vote: at it happened
Syria: August 28 as it happened







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